Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Odds For Week 16 NFL Game

With just two weeks left in the 2019 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs are starting to look like the top Super Bowl contender that they were considered to be when the year began. The AFC West champions should keep rolling when they visit the Chicago Bears on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 16.

Kansas City is a five-point favorite at Soldier Field, according to OddsShark. The total is 45.

The Bears have nothing on the line after being eliminated from contention with last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs are fighting for better playoff seeding and a chance to earn a first-round bye.

Since Patrick Mahomes returned from his knee injury, Kansas City has nearly gone unbeaten. The Chiefs wasted a 446-yard performance from the quarterback in his first game back, blowing a two-possession fourth-quarter lead in a 35-32 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City has gone on to win four straight games by an average of 16.3 points.

The Chiefs cruised past the Denver Broncos 23-3 in Week 15. Mahomes was terrific, completing 79.4 percent of his passes for 340 yards and a 115.7 passer rating.

But Kansas City’s defense was the story against Denver, as it has been for the last month.

It hasn’t been Mahomes and an explosive Chiefs’ offense carrying the team in spite of a poor defense, which had been the narrative earlier this season. The Kansas City defense has actually been above-average of late, most notably against the pass.

After a slow start, the Chiefs are up to 17th in opponents’ yards per play and 18th in total defense. They’ve given up 17 points or fewer during the entirety of their four-game winning streak.

Overall, the Chiefs are 11th against the pass. Kansas City’s opponents’ passer rating of 82.0 is good for sixth in the league. Those numbers have been comprised against an impressive list of quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson have all visited Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have taken on Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill, who have been among this season’s best signal callers as two of the only quarterbacks with a passer rating north of 111.0.

Mitchell Trubisky isn’t in the class of any of those quarterbacks. He’s not even close.

Green Bay is the only defense with a top-10 opponents’ passer rating that Chicago has faced this season. The Bears totaled 16 points in two losses to the Packers with Trubisky throwing for one touchdown pass, three interceptions and a pair of passer ratings in the low 60s.

The Los Angeles Rams are 13th in opponents’ passer rating. Trubisky went 24-43 for 190 yards, a touchdown, an interception and a 45.2 passer rating in a 17-7 defeat in L.A.

Trubisky has played well against the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins, all of whom have trouble stopping the pass. That’s where his list of good performances ends. His matchup with Kansas City won’t make the cut.

Chicago’s defense has been the driving force in most of its seven wins. The unit is still among the league’s best, ranking third in scoring defense and fifth in yards per play allowed.

Nobody stops Kansas City’s offense. The best defenses can slow them down, but the Chiefs will score their share of points, one way or another.

Including the playoffs, Mahomes has made 31 career starts. Kansas City has scored at least 23 points in 30 of those games.

The Chiefs have scored exactly 23 points in each of the last two games. Kansas City was forced to contend with a historic New England Patriots’ defense in Week 14 and several inches of snow against Denver in their last game.

Eight of the Chiefs’ nine wins with Mahomes as the starter this season have come by at least five points. Five of the Bears’ seven losses have come by a touchdown or more.

The New Orleans Saints had their way with the Bears in Chicago two months ago, winning 36-25. Another Super Bowl contender could have a similar performance at Soldier Field Sunday night.

Prediction: Kansas City over Chicago 27-16