Jimmy Butler 76ers Celtics
Jimmy Butler #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers drives to the basket on Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the first quarter of the game at TD Garden on December 25, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. Omar Rawlings/Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers might have to face a sobering reality this offseason. Despite having the cap space necessary to pair another max free agent with LeBron James, the odds are against one of the league’s true superstars signing with the team this summer.

L.A. will pursue Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson. While a lot can change over the next few months, all four players are favored to land elsewhere.

For younger teams like the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, missing out on a top tier free agent might mean refraining from handing out any long-term contracts. With James set to turn 35 years old next season, that’s probably not an option for the Lakers.

The Lakers’ championship window is now. The 2020 free agency class outside of Anthony Davis is a weak one, and Davis is likely to sign an extension with whatever team trades for him this offseason. Los Angeles can’t walk away from July empty-handed, relying on Brandon Ingram or Kyle Kuzma to be the second option to James, once again.

That means if the Lakers don’t give a max contract to a top-10 player, they are likely to overpay someone. It might even be worth the risk, considering James—when healthy and at the peak of his powers—can win a championship without one of the league’s very best players on his roster.

Jimmy Butler is probably the perfect example of such a free agent. Once thought to be a potential superstar, the veteran has proven to be a cut below the league’s top players. He’s never been an All-NBA Second-Team selection. His age, injury concerns and his seeming unhappiness with all of his teams have hurt his value.

There is increased speculation that Butler could have a hard time finding a full four-year, max contract, even from the Philadelphia 76ers. It won’t be surprising if the Lakers make him a $141 million offer, surpassing the rest of the deals that are presented to Butler.

Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus reported in November that the Lakers had Butler on their wish-list, putting him below the likes of Durant, Leonard and Thompson. If by the Fourth of July Durant is on the New York Knicks, Leonard joins the Los Angeles Clippers and Thompson re-ups with the Golden State Warriors, Butler could quickly become the Lakers’ No.1 option.

There have been rumors that some stars prefer not to play with James. Butler would likely take a max offer from the Lakers if he doesn’t get one elsewhere. Pincus also reported that Butler had interest in joining the Lakers last summer when he hoped to be traded.

Giving Butler a max contract is a risky proposition, though he has made four All-Star teams in the last five years. Kemba Walker is a similar free agent with three straight All-Star appearances, and he could become an option for the Lakers if the Charlotte Hornets don’t offer him the five-year max.

The next tier of free agents includes players that haven’t been quite as productive as Butler or Walker, but they are younger with less risk attached to them. Khris Middleton and Tobias Harris are in this category, considering they are very good players that will likely be overpaid by someone with max money.

In the earlier part of the season, Sporting News’ Sean Deveney reported that both the Lakers and Clippers would have interest in Middleton this summer.

The Milwaukee Bucks have to be thought of as the favorites to sign the forward, especially if they make a run to the 2019 NBA Finals. Signing Eric Bledsoe to a relatively team-friendly extension should also help Milwaukee’s chances of keeping Middleton.

Middleton made his first All-Star team this year. He’s going to turn 28 years old this summer and has never been an All-NBA candidate. His averages of 17.9 points. 6.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game this year are very good, but they don’t exactly scream, “max contract.”

Maybe Milwaukee will decide to pass on giving Middleton $30 million-plus per season. That would open the door for a team like the Lakers to give him a four-year, $141 million deal.

Middleton is a career 38.9 percent three-point shooter. His value would only increase by playing with James. If Los Angeles can also find a way to trade for Davis or another All-Star this summer, they might have the makings of a contender.

Harris could potentially fill that role, having never made an All-Star team and averaging 20.6 points per game with a 41.7 percent rate from three-point range this season. The 76ers have a good chance to re-sign him.

Despite what they’ve said publicly, Philadelphia isn’t expected to keep both Butler and Harris. There’s new speculation that Walker won’t stay with Charlotte. Middleton is no lock to remain in Milwaukee.

Los Angeles should have a decent shot to sign a very good player to a max contract. It just might not be the level of superstar that they were initially hoping to land.