More Than 150 Polymarket Wallets May Have Traded On U.S. Military Secrets, Research Finds

More than 150 anonymous Polymarket wallets may have traded using inside information about U.S. military operations, according to new research.

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, or ACDC, identified 152 wallets that placed unusually successful bets on military and defense events, collectively earning about $8 million with an average win rate of 97.2%. The nonprofit said the trading patterns make the wallets among those most likely to have benefited from military secrets, although the blockchain data alone cannot prove who controlled the accounts or where their information came from.

The findings are particularly concerning because trades on Polymarket International are recorded on a public blockchain. Traders can remain anonymous, but their wagers are visible, meaning an unusually confident bet ahead of a military operation could be noticed and copied by other traders, or potentially monitored by foreign intelligence services.

ACDC analyzed settled Polymarket markets and focused on what it called "long-shot" wagers: bets totaling at least $2,500 within an hour on outcomes priced at odds of 35% or lower. It identified 556 wallets with unusual patterns, dubbing them "Orcas" because of the accounts' tendency to appear, make highly successful bets on relatively unlikely outcomes and then, in many cases, cash out and disappear.

Of those wallets, 152 were linked to military and defense markets. ACDC stressed that the behavior does not prove insider trading, since luck or other legitimate sources of information could explain some successful bets. Its earlier research, however, also found military and defense markets had an unusually high success rate for long-shot wagers, with 52% of such bets winning compared with much lower rates across Polymarket overall, Cryptobriefing reported.

The research also suggests potentially informed trades can quickly attract much larger bets. Before U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, for example, an Orca wager on U.S. military action was followed by copycat bets of $200,000 from an automated trading bot and $100,000 from a large trader, according to Reuters. Researchers identified similar patterns before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran, when unusual bets were followed by additional long-shot wagers on the same outcome.

ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi warned that unusual activity on Polymarket is far more visible than many traders may realize. He said large traders and automated bots already appear to be tracking and copying potentially informed wagers, making it reasonable to expect foreign intelligence agencies could monitor the same activity.

The findings come amid growing scrutiny of insider trading on prediction markets. In April, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged U.S. Army service member Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about a military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to trade Polymarket contracts. The regulator alleged Van Dyke bought more than 436,000 "Yes" shares in a contract asking whether Maduro would be removed by Jan. 31 and generated more than $404,000 in profits. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.

That case is separate from the 152 military wallets identified in the new research because Van Dyke accumulated his position more gradually and did not meet ACDC's definition of an Orca. It nevertheless demonstrated that the national security risks surrounding prediction-market trading are no longer merely theoretical.

Regulators have also pursued suspected insider trading outside military markets. In May, the CFTC charged a Google software engineer with allegedly using confidential information about the company's 2025 Year in Search rankings to trade 23 Polymarket contracts with near-perfect accuracy, generating approximately $1.2 million in profits.

Polymarket has said it closely monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities, including activity connected with the Maduro case. The company did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment on ACDC's latest findings. In comments previously submitted to the CFTC, Polymarket US said it "strongly condemns insider trading and market abuse" and would work with regulators to identify misconduct.

The CFTC has similarly pledged tougher enforcement as prediction markets rapidly expand. Chairman Michael Selig said in April that the regulator would investigate fraud, manipulation and insider trading, while the agency has since brought several cases involving alleged misuse of confidential information.

ACDC argues that enforcement after suspicious trades occur may not be enough when military information is involved. The group is calling for traders to be required to verify their identities, suspicious payouts to be withheld during investigations and markets where nonpublic information could be especially valuable to be prohibited altogether.