NFL Picks 2016: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 17

Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season offers some interesting gambling opportunities, considering what’s at stake for the teams facing off in the regular-season finale. A few teams that need victories Sunday could have big wins over teams that have nothing on the line.

Guaranteed to be the NFC’s No. 5 seed, the New York Giants are heavy underdogs, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds, against a team that needs to win to make the playoffs. The Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks are fighting for home-field advantage, and they could cover big betting lines against teams that are out of contention.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets for Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season:

Washington Redskins (-7.5)

The Redskins have already won in Metlife Stadium this season, and they shouldn’t have a problem beating the Giants for a second time at home. Needing a win to stay alive in the playoff race, Washington could win by double-digits against a team that doesn't have anything to play for.

Eli Manning will get the start for New York, but it’s hard to believe that Ryan Nassib won’t get some playing time in the second half. The Giants have enough problems scoring, and they probably won’t get in the end zone if Manning or Odell Beckham Jr. is on the bench. Washington ranks third in the NFL in total offense, and this game could be out of reach for the Giants if the Redskins score 20 points. Even with their full complement of starters, New York hasn’t scored more than 19 points in their last four games.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

It’s a game that both the Packers and Detroit Lions need, but Green Bay is playing much better football at the moment. Entering Sunday night’s game on a five-game winning streak, the Packers are likely to clinch the NFC North title in Detroit.

With Aaron Rodgers playing like the best quarterback in football, Green Bay’s offense has been unstoppable lately. Rodgers has thrown for 14 scores with no interceptions in the last six games, and Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a league-high 105.0 passer rating. Matthew Stafford has little help on offense with the 30th ranked rushing attack, and the Lions won’t be able to keep up with a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

There are no guarantees when it comes to betting on the NFL, but one of the few constants in the last few years has been the Seahawks' ability to cover the spread against the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle has done so in their last 11 matchups with their NFC West rivals, via OddsShark, and they’ll continue that streak Sunday.

Seattle is still in the hunt for a potential first-round bye, and a victory would guarantee them no worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Seahawks’ offense has struggled at times in 2016, but that won’t be an issue against the team that’s allowed more points than anyone this season. San Francisco hasn’t scored 20 points against Seattle since the season opener in 2011, and they won’t score much in a meaningless game against the NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense.

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

With the playoffs a week away, the Falcons control their own playoff destiny. A win over the New Orleans Saints gives them the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, which they are likely to clinch Sunday at the Georgia Dome.

The Saints would be in the playoffs if they had a better defense, but Drew Brees and Co. have not been able to make up for a unit that allows nearly 28 points per game. Considering Atlanta enters Week 17 with the No. 8 scoring offense in NFL history, it’s not hard to imagine the Falcons nearing 50 points Sunday. Matt Ryan has been better than any quarterback that’s played the entire season, and he could earn himself the 2016 NFL MVP award with one more big performance.

Carolina Panthers (+6)

Carolina has nothing to play for in the season finale, but being out of the playoff race hasn’t stopped them from winning two of their last three games. They have a chance to go on the road and upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are all but eliminated from postseason contention.

After losing two games in a row, the Bucs have less than a one percent chance to win the final NFC wild-card spot. The defense has allowed 57 total points in the last two weeks, and Jameis Winston’s propensity to throw interceptions could cost Tampa Bay against a team that is tied for sixth in takeaways. The Panthers have struggled on the road against good teams, but they shouldn’t be six-point underdogs against the Bucs, who are not on the same level as the teams headed to the postseason.

Season Record: 42-35-3