Packers vs. Patriots 2018 Prediction: Tom Brady, New England Will Beat Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

The NFL’s two best quarterbacks will face off Sunday night when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (5-2) host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-3-1). Of course, it isn’t just the future Hall of Famers that will determine the outcome in the Week 9 matchup.

New England is a significant favorite at home, laying 5.5 points against Green Bay, according to OddsShark. It marks the second straight week in which the NFC’s top passer is a heavy underdog.

Rodgers was the biggest underdog of his career in Week 8, getting nearly 10 points when Green Bay visited the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers covered the spread and came as close anyone has to beating the undefeated Rams, but they ultimately fell short with a 29-27 loss.

Playing that well against another tough road opponent for a second straight week will be difficult. L.A. is the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, and New England has the best championship odds in the AFC. The Rams still haven’t lost, but it might be the Patriots that are playing better football at the moment.

By defeating the Buffalo Bills 25-6 on “Monday Night Football,” the Patriots extended their winning streak to five games. New England has been a different team since trading for Josh Gordon and getting Julian Edelman back from his suspension. New England has scored at least 38 eight points in four of their last five victories. Only the Rams, Saints and Chiefs are scoring more points per game.

Green Bay’s had an uneven season with three wins in seven games. They haven’t won away from Lambeau Field. Since beating the Chicago Bears in Week 1 with the best comeback of the first half of the season, the Packers are 0-3-1 against teams that have at least three wins.

The Packers came close to beating the Rams last week. They probably would have pulled off the upset if Ty Montgomery hadn’t fumbled a kickoff with less than two minutes remaining. The way Green Bay played in Los Angeles is the way they’ll have to perform Sunday if they hope to win in New England.

Jared Goff finished the game with 295 passing yards and a 111.0 passer rating, but he was uncomfortable for much of the afternoon. The quarterback was under constant pressure. Goff was sacked by the Packers five times after being sacked 12 times in his previous seven games. Green Bay got the better of what had arguably been the NFL’s best offensive line, and they’ll have to do the same in Week 9.

Doing so won’t be easy, especially considering Brady has avoided sacks even better than Goff. The five-time Super Bowl champion has been sacked just 11 times in eight games.

Brady will carve up Green Bay’s defense if he has time to throw. The quarterback has too many weapons with Gordon, Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and James White at his disposal. The Packers are 22nd in opponents’ passer rating, and they’ll be playing their first game without safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who was traded before Tuesday’s deadline.

Sony Michel is expected to be back on the field Sunday night. The running back averaged 105 yards on 4.7 yards per carry in the three games before he got hurt in Chicago.

Rodgers should put up his usual impressive numbers. The quarterback has averaged 331 yards, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions for a 101.7 passer rating against the Rams, Lions and Redskins on the road. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined 24 points.

Even when the Patriots didn’t look like the Patriots during the first three weeks of the season, they still managed to score 27 points at home in Week 1. New England is 4-0 at Gillette Stadium, averaging 35.8 points per game.

The Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 home games, going 9-3 against the spread, per OddsShark. The Packers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, and that trend should hold up against the defending AFC champions.

Prediction: New England over Green Bay, 38-27