Ravens vs. Browns 2020 Prediction: Baltimore Beats Cleveland, Covers Spread In Week 14

You won’t find a more important game on the NFL Week 14 schedule than the “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. It's a contest that has serious playoff implications and might be able to tell us a lot about the championship aspirations of both teams.

With a 9-3 record, Cleveland is the No.5 seed and still in the AFC North race. The Ravens are two games behind the Browns, one game out of the final wild-card spot and already out of contention in the division.

But it’s Baltimore who’s favored in Monday’s game, despite playing on the road with the worse record.

The Ravens are laying 2.5 points in Cleveland, according to betting odds compiled by OddsShark, and the line has been moving in Baltimore’s direction all week. The total is 47.

The Browns made a statement in Week 13 by defeating the first-place Tennessee Titans 41-35 in a contest that was much more one-sided than the final score indicates. Cleveland proved it belongs in that playoffs with that victory. A win against the defending division champs might show that they are a legitimate AFC contender.

Why are the Ravens favored? The Week 1 meeting between the rivals probably has a lot to do with it. Baltimore embarrassed Cleveland 38-6 in the season opener. Lamar Jackson had his best passing day of 2020, completing 20-25 passes for 275 yards, three touchdowns and a near-perfect 152.1 passer rating.

Baker Mayfield went 21-39 for 189 yards with one touchdown, one interception and a poor 65.0 passer rating. That’s largely been the story for Cleveland’s quarterback when he faces top defenses.

The Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are the three best defenses on the Browns’ schedule. Mayfield posted a passer rating below 73.0 in all three of those games. Cleveland’s signal caller was limited to 119 passing yards in the team’s 38-7 loss in Pittsburgh.

The Browns managed to beat the Colts 32-23 on the strength of a strong defensive effort. Cleveland had two interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

Mayfield was impressive with a four-touchdown performance against a bad Titans’ defense last week. Repeating that against a much better Ravens’ defense is highly unlikely.

Baltimore ranks fourth in scoring defense and fifth in opponents’ yards per play. Cleveland is 22nd and 14th, respectively, in those two categories.

The Ravens and Browns have the top two rushing attacks in the NFL. Baltimore is more likely to slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt than the Browns are to stop Jackson and the Ravens’ running backs.

If Mayfield is forced to try and win this game, he’s going to come up short.

Prediction: Baltimore over Cleveland, 23-17