Preseason Super Bowl odds usually give a pretty good indication of which teams will be competing for a championship throughout the NFL season. There are bound to be a few surprise teams and underachievers, but it’s been a few years since a team entered the year as a true long-shot contender and won the Super Bowl.

The Philadelphia Eagles had 50/1 championship odds before the 2017 season and ended up winning the title with backup Nick Foles under center. The San Francisco 49ers came close two years ago, falling short in the Super Bowl. Each of the last three Super Bowl champs started the year with no worse than 15/1 odds to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

Here’s a breakdown of the Super Bowl LVI odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook, before Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. 

The Favorites: Kansas City Chiefs +500, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650

It’s little surprise that the two teams that met in last season’s Super Bowl are overwhelming favorites to win their respective conferences. In three seasons as Kansas City’s starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes’ earliest playoff exit came in overtime of the AFC Championship Game. Tom Brady keeps winning Super Bowls, and the Bucs could be even better in Year No. 2 with the same 22 starters. At the very least, Kansas and Tampa Bay should be division champs that contend for a No. 1 seed.

Top Contenders: Buffalo Bills +1200, Green Bay Packers +1200, Baltimore Ravens +1400, San Francisco 49ers +1400, Los Angeles Rams +1500, Cleveland Browns +1600, Seattle Seahawks +2000

Green Bay is an obvious contender with two straight trips to the NFC Championship Game and the reigning MVP in Aaron Rodgers. After finishing second in NFL MVP voting and reaching the AFC Championship Game, Josh Allen can potentially get the Bills over the hump this season. The NFC West is the best division in football with three viable title contenders. The AFC North isn’t far behind with Baltimore and Cleveland both coming off 11-win seasons and trips to the divisional playoffs. 

In The Mix: Tennessee Titans +2500, New Orleans Saints +3000, Dallas Cowboys +3000, Indianapolis Colts +3100, Los Angeles Chargers +3300, Miami Dolphins +3300, New England Patriots +3700

A season after the Titans and Colts went 11-5 in the AFC South, the bottom half of the division looks even weaker. The Saints have won four straight NFC South championships, though replacing Drew Brees with Jameis Winston could be a major downgrade. The Cowboys are easily the most talented team in the NFC East with Dak Prescott back from ankle surgery. If Justin Herbert shows even more improvement from his record-setting rookie campaign, the Chargers could be dangerous. Miami and New England have playoff-caliber rosters, though their fates will ultimately be determined by the progress  of their young quarterbacks

If Everything Breaks Right: Pittsburgh Steelers +4400, Minnesota Vikings +4400, Arizona Cardinals +4800, Chicago Bears +5000, Washington Football Team +5000, Denver Broncos +5000

There are relatively low expectations for the Steelers, who are the reigning AFC North champs but lost five of their last six games. Washington won a historically weak NFC East with a losing record. The Vikings are returning all the key pieces of a top-five offense. Another leap by Kyler Murray would give the Cardinals a high ceiling. Chicago and Denver has strong defenses with questions at quarterback.

Long Shots: Atlanta Falcons +6000, Las Vegas Raiders +7500, New York Giants +7500, Philadelphia Eagles +8500, Carolina Panthers +9000

Making the playoffs would be a major accomplishment for any of these teams, let alone going on any kind of postseason run. The Falcons have at least some hope with 2016 MVP Matt Ryan still under center and new head coach Arthur Smith. The Raiders have increased their win total in two straight seasons, but it’s been 19 years since their last playoff win. The Giants have gone a decade without a playoff victory. Carolina and Philadelphia are coming off 11-loss seasons and led by quarterbacks who probably won’t be starters in 2022. 

No Chance: New York Jets +12000, Cincinnati Bengals +12000, Jacksonville Jaguars +12000, Detroit Lions +20000, Houston Texans +25000

Teams with worse than 100/1 odds don’t make Super Bowl runs anymore. For the Jets, Bengals and Jaguars, 2021 is about seeing progress from their top-drafted quarterbacks. The Lions and Texans will compete for the NFL’s worst record.

Patrick Mahomes (L) and Tom Brady wil go head-to-head in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs face the Buccaneers Patrick Mahomes (L) and Tom Brady went head-to-head in the Super Bowl. Photo: GETTY IMAGES / JAMIE SQUIRE