A ‘Supersized’ El Niño Is Getting Stronger. The Economic Pain Could Spread Far Beyond The Countries Hit First.

A rapidly strengthening El Niño is expected to become a very strong event before the end of 2026, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and extreme heat across large parts of the world and putting additional pressure on agriculture, food supplies and energy systems.

The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that forecasts from its global climate centers show a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027, the highest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Niño update. Exceptionally warm waters in the tropical Pacific are expected to fuel further strengthening before the event peaks toward the end of this year.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was being "supersized before our eyes," warning that the world had entered a "danger zone of extreme weather." WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said droughts and floods were already causing disruption and that the damage was expected to increase as the climate pattern intensifies.

The WMO's latest update said El Niño was firmly established by mid-August as ocean temperatures climbed well above normal levels, with persistent and intensifying warmth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The agency expects the event to substantially alter temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions in the coming months.

Agriculture is already feeling some of the economic effects, particularly in countries where El Niño is disrupting rainfall. India is experiencing its weakest monsoon since 2009, with rainfall expected to finish about 15% below the long-term average, Reuters reported, citing weather officials. The shortfall threatens crops including cotton, soybeans, corn and pulses, while reduced soil moisture could affect the later planting of wheat and rapeseed.

Sri Lanka is dealing with one of its worst El Niño-related droughts in decades, with wells, rivers and reservoirs drying up in some farming regions. Rainfall deficits have reached severe levels in parts of the country, damaging crops and cutting agricultural incomes, Reuters reported Thursday.

Communities across Central America are also reporting significant damage from irregular rainfall and drought, with an Oxfam assessment in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador finding widespread crop losses, reduced access to water and declining household incomes in the region's Dry Corridor. The organization said food insecurity was worsening among rural families that depend heavily on agriculture.

El Niño develops when unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific interact with the atmosphere and alter weather patterns around the world. The phenomenon occurs naturally every two to seven years, but its strength varies considerably from one event to another.

The WMO said it is stepping up coordination with national weather services and humanitarian agencies as the current event strengthens, with Saulo calling for increased preparation in agriculture, health, energy and water management. The agency expects El Niño to reach very strong intensity before peaking late this year, with its climate effects continuing into 2027.