One of the great rivalries in college football has added significance this weekend, as the No. 14 Texas Longhorns (9-3) take on the No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday. Though Texas won the regular season meeting in a classic, last-minute shootout, oddsmakers have the Sooners as close favorites this time around, per OddsShark.

Oklahoma is an 8-point favorite over Texas, and to make matters worse for Texas, the Sooners have serious motivation to win this game. The last regular season College Football Playoff rankings have Oklahoma at No. 5, or the first team out if the playoffs started today. If Oklahoma wins and No. 1 Alabama beats No. 4 Georgia in the SEC Championship game, it seems likely that the Sooners would take the Bulldogs’ playoff spot.

Texas beat Oklahoma 48-45 earlier this year in a wild rivalry game. The Longhorns took a big lead in the fourth quarter before the Sooners, led by Heisman hopeful Kyler Murray at quarterback, stormed back to tie the game late. A Texas field goal in the final seconds secured a big win for second-year head coach Tom Herman.

Overall, though, the Longhorns have been inconsistent this year and oddsmakers expect the Sooners to win somewhat comfortably. Oklahoma has not lost any other games, while Texas has unimpressive losses to Maryland and Oklahoma State on its resume.

One thing that could work out in the Longhorns’ favor is that this game is strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Texas is third in the conference in total defense, while Oklahoma is first in total offense. Meanwhile, Texas is sixth in total offense and Oklahoma is dead last in total defense.

Prediction: Texas will not go down without a fight, but Kyler Murray and the rest of the explosive Oklahoma offense will be too much for the Longhorns over four quarters. Oklahoma will do just enough to split the season series and make its way into the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma wins, 37-28