Texas’ Senators Have Been Republicans For Decades. Now Polls Show A Democrat In The Lead

Democrat James Talarico is in the lead in the Texas Senate race, according to three recent polls.

The latest poll by Texas Southern University found Talarico leading current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 47 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent. The poll was conducted between July 27 and July 30.

Two other surveys also found Talarico in the lead. A Fox News poll also conducted at the end of July had Talarico leading 51 percent to 48 percent. And a Texas Public Opinion Research poll completed in mid-July had Talarico up by five points, 45 percent to 40 percent.

The Texas race is considered crucial for Democrats in the midterm elections if they hope to make a run at the Senate majority. Democrats need to gain four seats to do so. Should Talarico effectively win, he would be the first Democrat to represent Texas in the Senate in more than three decades.

Longtime Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn lost a primary challenge to Paxton, who was supported by President Trump. Paxton, however, was viewed as a potentially vulnerable candidate by some Republicans due to a series of past controversies.

In 2023, Paxton was impeached by a Texas House committee for a variety of alleged offenses, including bribery and abuse of public trust, the Associated Press reported. The impeachment included 20 articles; Paxton was acquitted after a trial in the Texas Senate.

In 2015, he was indicted on securities fraud. That case was eventually dismissed in 2025 after an agreement was reached with prosecutors. The Texas Scorecard reported that Paxton admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to complete over 100 hours of community service, 30 hours of ethics training, and to pay full restitution, about $300,000.

Axios reported that Republicans view Paxton's past issues as something that could be overcome if enough money was dumped into the race. However, the website reported that last quarter, Paxton raised about $9 million compared to $30 million for Talarico.

Axios reported that Paxton's supporters have been undeterred by the polls and the fundraising gap.

"The only poll that matters is November 3," Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser told Axios. "Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream."