U.S. Colleges Are Losing International Students. Tighter Visa Rules Deepen the Decline.

International student enrollment at U.S. colleges is falling sharply, and new application data suggest the decline could deepen as visa restrictions, processing delays and uncertainty over immigration rules make the United States a less attractive destination for students overseas.

New international student enrollment dropped 17% in fall 2025 compared with the previous year, according to data from the Institute of International Education. The decline is now showing up earlier in the admissions pipeline as international applicants for the 2026-27 academic year fell about 10%, even as overall undergraduate application volume increased, according to Common App data released Thursday.

The pullback marks a significant reversal for U.S. higher education, which has historically attracted some of the world's largest populations of international students, particularly from India and China.

The latest Common App data show the weakness is concentrated in several important overseas markets. Earlier figures through March showed applicants from Asia down 10%, driven partly by a 14% decline from India.

Applicants from Africa fell 16%, including decreases of 34% from Ghana, 17% from Nigeria and 29% from Ethiopia. The Americas were an exception, with applicants rising 4%, including a 129% jump from Venezuela and 55% growth from Honduras.

The numbers come as the Trump administration tightens rules governing international students. A new Department of Homeland Security policy replaces the longstanding "duration of status" system for F and J visa holders with fixed admission periods, a shift that could particularly affect students pursuing lengthy graduate and STEM programs. The rule is scheduled to take effect Sept. 15.

Visa availability has already emerged as another obstacle. The State Department issued 36% fewer F-1 student visas between May and August 2025 than during the same period a year earlier, according to figures cited by NAFSA: Association of International Educators.

The consequences could extend well beyond university campuses. International students often pay full tuition or receive less financial aid than domestic students, making them an important source of revenue for many institutions. Colleges outside the country's most selective tier may be especially exposed because they are simultaneously confronting a shrinking pool of college-age Americans.

Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of college consulting firm Crimson Education, told CNBC that the changes are likely to accelerate a divide already emerging within higher education.

"They'll accelerate a sorting that was already underway, where institutions that can't demonstrate clear return on investment lose enrollment and cut programs, and the very top schools like Harvard, Stanford, MIT and Duke continue standing strong," Beaton said.

Elite universities generally have international applicant pools large enough to absorb a substantial decline in demand. Mid-ranked private colleges and regional public universities, however, could have more difficulty replacing international students with domestic applicants.

The financial stakes stretch into local economies. International students contributed $42.9 billion to the U.S. economy and supported more than 355,000 jobs during the 2024-25 academic year, according to NAFSA.

For fall 2026, NAFSA and JB International now project that international enrollment could decline by as much as 111,000 students. Under their upper-range scenario, enrollment would fall to roughly 1.06 million, compared with nearly 1.18 million in 2024-25.

That contraction could strip as much as $3.4 billion from the U.S. economy and put nearly 40,000 jobs at risk. California alone could lose nearly $500 million in economic activity, while New York could lose about $470 million.

Texas faces a potential $199 million decline. "The projections underscore what we've long warned: U.S. policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future," NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw said.