Warriors vs. Mavericks: Can Golden State Blow 3-0 Lead? Odds Of Dallas Making NBA History

The Dallas Mavericks avoided being swept in the Western Conference Finals, defeating the Golden State Warriors 119-109 in Game 4 Tuesday night. The victory sends the series back to Golden State for Game 5 Thursday and gives Dallas slim hope of pulling off a seemingly impossible upset.

No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win an NBA playoff series. So what are the odds that the Mavericks could make history?

Dallas has +1900 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the conference finals. Golden State is a massive -5000 favorite, suggesting that there’s almost no chance the Warriors will lose the series.

The series is likely to end in Game 5 on Thursday night as the Warriors are 7.5-point favorites at home with -320 odds to win outright. The Mavericks have +260 odds to force a Game 6.

If Dallas finds a way to beat Golden State in Game 5, the idea that the Mavericks could complete a historic 3-0 series comeback will seem much more realistic. Game 6 would be played in Dallas, where the Mavericks are 5-1 this postseason when Luka Doncic is in the lineup.

Considering the Mavericks were favored in both home games this series, Dallas would likely be favored to force a Game 7 if the series extends to six games.

“Think of it as four Game 7s, win or go home,” Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson said on TNT after Game 4. “You’ve got to ball out every game.”

The Mavericks have already won a Game 7 on the road this postseason against a favored opponent. Dallas stunned the Phoenix Suns 123-90 in Game 7 of their second-round series for one of the most shocking NBA results in recent memory.

The Warriors have already been in this position this postseason. After winning the first three games of their first-round series with the Denver Nuggets, Golden State failed to complete the sweep on the road. The Warriors closed out the series with a 102-98 Game 5 victory.

Three NBA teams have forced a Game 7 after losing the first three games of the series, only to come up short in the deciding contest. It last happened in 2003 when Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks held off the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round.

Golden State became the first team to blow a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals six years ago. LeBron James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to a historic comeback against Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, who was infamously suspended for Game 5 when the Warriors had a chance to clinch the championship.

James averaged 36.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 3.0 blocks and 3.0 steals in the final three games of the 2016 NBA Finals. Doncic is averaging 33.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.8 steals against Golden State.

The shooting of Dallas’ role players was the difference in Game 4. Mavericks’ players other than Doncic shot 17-of-32 from three-point range after making 30.6% of their threes in the previous three contests. Reggie Bullock followed up an 0-for-7 performance from downtown with six makes in 10 attempts Tuesday.

Stephen Curry scored 20 points, his lowest output since Game 5 of the second round. Curry is averaging 29.7 points in his last seven home games.

With the Eastern Conference Finals tied at 2-2, the Warriors are -170 favorites to win the championship. Golden State is given better than a 50% chance to win its fourth title in seven years.