While Texas Governor Rick Perry has emerged as the apparent front-runner in the 2012 Republican Presidential sweepstakes (and treated as such by rivals who have come to attacking him for a number of issues), not everyone is convinced that Perry will actually come out ahead at the end of this long race.
International Business Times spoke to Jamie Chandler, a professor of political science at Hunter College in New York, about why he thinks former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney could eventually prevail and challenge Democrat incumbent Barack Obama in 2012.
Perry may win Iowa, but Romney will win New Hampshire
- New Hampshire is a far more important predictor of who wins the nomination.
- Recent Granite State polls indicate that Romney leads fourth place Perry by 33 percent.
- Iowa predicts the presidential nominee about 50 percent of the time, but New Hampshire predicts the winner 80 percent of the time.
Romney has a stronger campaign organization
- Romney has been building his campaign organization since 2004, and has the benefit of campaign experience from the 2008 primary race.
- He is much better positioned with a strong staff and network of operatives to mobilize swing and independent voters.
- Perry's organization is still embryonic.
Republicans tend to rally around the most electable candidate early in the primary process
- Romney is perceived as more electable (current match-up polls give Romney 44 percent and Obama 41 percent of the national vote). .
- Rick Perry is having a tough time convincing large, Wall Street donors of his electability. Romney, on the other hand, has built strong inroads in this community.
Romney is consistent in his debate and public performance. Perry, on the other hand, is playing the 'rough-rider.'
- Perry's comments this week in New York on Obama's Foreign Policy hurt his effort to reassure cautious, potential supporters.
- Romney has consistently come across as more reasoned and knowledgeable in debates.
The Obama campaign is much more nervous about a Romney match-up .
- Romney appeals to 'swing voters' who are unhappy with Obama's performance.