Bitcoin Is Flashing 8 Capitulation Signals. VanEck Says The Bottom May Not Be In Yet.

Bitcoin is flashing several signals associated with the later stages of major selloffs, but historical data suggests investors may have to wait longer before a sustained recovery takes hold.

Eight of 12 "capitulation" indicators tracked by asset manager VanEck are currently at levels associated with periods of heavy selling. All 12 indicators have entered those ranges at some point during the past three months.

Bitcoin was trading around $64,300 Wednesday, about 49% below its all-time high, after spending recent weeks in a relatively narrow range.

CoinDesk reported that VanEck's indicators measure conditions that tend to reach extremes during market declines, including Bitcoin's drawdown from its peak, miner economics and the proportion of holders sitting on losses.

The number of signals does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has reached a bottom.

VanEck examined previous periods when between eight and 12 of its capitulation indicators were active. Bitcoin subsequently returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days and 32% over 180 days.

Those figures were below Bitcoin's broader historical averages of 15.2% over 90 days and 36.3% over 180 days. The returns following capitulation readings exceeded Bitcoin's historical baseline only when measured over a one-year period.

VanEck also cautioned that its sample is small and includes overlapping periods, limiting how much can be inferred from previous results. The investment manager disclosed that it has exposure to Bitcoin.

One of the indicators is Bitcoin's decline from its previous high.

VanEck considers a drawdown greater than 35% a capitulation signal. Bitcoin's current decline of roughly 49% therefore qualifies, although it is still considerably smaller than some of the cryptocurrency's previous bear-market losses.

Earlier Bitcoin cycles included peak-to-trough declines of 94%, 85%, 84% and 78%, according to the analysis.

Those periods occurred under different market conditions. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had not yet been introduced in the U.S., institutional ownership was smaller and some declines coincided with major failures in the crypto industry, including the collapses of Celsius and FTX.

The length of Bitcoin's current decline is also approaching the duration of previous bear markets.

VanEck identified four completed cycles since 2011, with peak-to-trough declines lasting an average of about 11 months. Excluding the shorter 2011 cycle, the average increases to 12.7 months.

Bitcoin entered the 10th month of its decline from its October 2025 peak in August.

Based on those previous cycles, VanEck said a possible accumulation period could emerge between September and November, although the firm did not identify a specific date for a market bottom.

Bitcoin's recent trading pattern has also been unusually quiet. Thirty-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% on an annualized basis, well below its long-term average of around 80%. The cryptocurrency has traded largely between $62,300 and $66,500 since recovering from a June 30 low of around $58,500.

That follows a period of heavier selling earlier this year. In its June ChainCheck report, VanEck said U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products had recorded roughly $5 billion in cumulative outflows as 19 of 22 trading sessions saw investors withdraw money.

More recently, fund flows have improved. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products attracted about $663 million over the latest 30-day period, reversing part of the roughly $2.4 billion in outflows recorded during the previous month, according to VanEck.

Trading activity, however, remains subdued. Thirty-day spot volume has fallen 27% and is around the 10th percentile of its historical range.

Bitcoin miners are also facing pressure. Daily network revenue has fallen 46% this year, while mining difficulty is down 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as less-profitable machines have been switched off. VanEck said it was the largest decline in mining difficulty since China's crackdown on crypto mining in 2021.

The combination of falling miner revenue, holder losses and Bitcoin's large decline from its peak has pushed more of VanEck's capitulation indicators into their historical stress ranges.

But the firm's historical analysis does not show that eight or more signals have reliably marked an immediate bottom.

Instead, previous readings have been followed by below-average Bitcoin returns over three- and six-month periods, with stronger relative performance appearing only after a year.