KEY POINTS

  • Bitcoin traded sideways at $11,3000 amid a muted response to the speech delivered by Fed chair Jerome Powell about inflation
  • The CME Gap was at $9,600last July
  • If Bitcoin failed to close above $11,500, it could revisit the $9,600 level to fill the CME gap

Analysts are looking at two scenarios the current Bitcoin price could lead to -- an increase to $16,000 or a drop to $9,600.  

Bitcoin closed Thursday at $11,330, giving up all the gains from the previous day. Currently trading at $11,357, Bitcoin is 8% below the yearly high of $12,304 but still 8% above the opening price of $9,807 on July 27. On that day, Bitcoin plowed past $10,000 to reach $11,048 in one day. Bitcoin has not yet closed below $11,000 since then. 

With $276 million worth of BTC futures set to expire Friday, technical analysts believe if Bitcoin closes above $11,500 on the weekly chart, the chances of a rally toward $16,000 will increase. But $9,600 would be on the table just in case Bitcoin touches $10,500.

An analyst nameed “TraderMayne" says the clear target is regaining $11,700. He argues the last two upside moves are clear bearish retests. 

The $9,600 and $16,000 levels, however, have a precedent -- the CME market gap. 

Since the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is closed during weekends, a gap is formed when it opens every Monday. The gap is formed whenever there is extreme volatility in the price of Bitcoin while the exchange, where institutional investors are trading, is closed. According to Cointelegraph, there is a gap at $16,000 which has existed for years. The gap was at $9,600 last July. 

Thursday’s volatility was expected as the market awaited -- and watched -- Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's speech about inflation at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell promised to keep inflation at 2% and if it overshoots, the Fed would opt for an average that will take into account periods of weak price increases. 

During Powell’s speech, Bitcoin’s price rose to $11,600, or 1.8%. Post-speech, the rally has faded and decreased to $11,400 before closing at $11,330.

Bitcoin In this photo illustration a visual representation of the digital currency Bitcoin sinks into water in London, England, Aug. 15, 2018. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images