With hopes of making a Super Bowl run, the Dallas Cowboys have failed to reach expectations through the first 11 games of the 2019 NFL season. If the defending NFC East champions can’t win on Thanksgiving, it might be a clear sign that the team is no real threat to compete for a title.

The Buffalo Bills will visit Dallas Thursday afternoon. Buffalo has had the better regular season, though you wouldn’t know it by taking a look at the betting line.

The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites in the Week 13 matchup, according to OddsShark. Thursday’s total is 45.

Both teams are in the current playoff picture. Buffalo improved its record to 8-3 with a victory in Week 12, giving them a two-game lead for the first AFC wild-card berth. The Cowboys are two games behind the Bills in the overall standings. Dallas has a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

Dallas missed their chances to upset the New England Patriots Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys were defeated 13-9 by the Super Bowl champs in Gillette Stadium, continuing a trend that indicates Dallas will be one-and-done in the postseason if they manage to win a bad division.

The loss gave the Cowboys an 0-4 record against teams that enter Week 13 with a record above .500. Dallas has been defeated in New England and New Orleans. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings both won at AT&T Stadium.

All four of those teams that beat Dallas are Super Bowl contenders. Buffalo doesn’t appear to be on the same level, taking advantage of a weak schedule of their own, beating seven teams that have four victories or fewer.

The Bills did challenge the Patriots and nearly pulled off the upset earlier this season, losing 16-10. Buffalo lost in Cleveland 19-16 a few weeks ago. Their only one-sided defeat was a 31-13 loss to Philadelphia in Week 8.

Buffalo’s defense keeps them in just about every game. The Bills are third in yards allowed, yards allowed per play and scoring defense.

The Cowboys still lead the NFL in total yards and yards per play. Those offensive numbers haven’t translated to many points against elite defenses.

Dak Prescott Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys reacts after running for a first down with Dak Prescott #4 in the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints at AT&T Stadium on November 29, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

After Sunday’s loss in New England, Dallas has totaled 31 points in three matchups with teams that rank in the top-10 in opponents’ yards per play. Dak Prescott has no touchdown passes and two interceptions in those games with an average passer rating of 75.6. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 75.3 rushing yards on 3.4 yards per attempt.

Elliott could rebound after a tough stretch. The two-time rushing champion is averaging 59.3 yards on the ground in his last three games. Buffalo is giving up 4.4 yards per rush. The Bills surrendered 365 yards on 67 attempts in their last two defeats.

Josh Allen hasn’t put up big passing numbers in his second season, failing to throw for more than 266 yards in each game. His accuracy has improved and he’s thrown just one interception in the last six games. Allen also has 387 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 2019.

The Bills have only reached the 30-point mark against the Miami Dolphins, who are dead last in scoring defense. In seven games against teams that rank better than 28th in scoring defense, Buffalo hasn’t put up more than 24 points once.

Dallas has the edge at home with the better quarterback, but questionable in-game decisions by head coach Jason Garrett and the offense’s struggles against good defenses should keep this one close until the end.

Prediction: Dallas over Buffalo, 20-17