Jon Lester Chicago Cubs
Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs pitches against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Wrigley Field on September 15, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. Jon Durr/Getty Images

A day after both teams failed to win their respective divisions in a one-game tiebreaker, the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies have one more chance to reach the National League Division Series. They’ll do battle at Wrigley Field in the 2018 NL Wild-Card Game Tuesday night, hoping for some redemption after blowing their shot to host Game 1 of the NLDS.

The Cubs and Rockies each had a one-game division lead heading into the final weekend of MLB’s regular season. A loss by both teams Saturday allowed the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers to take a share of first place. The Brewers won in Chicago Monday to claim the NL Central title, while the Dodgers beat the Rockies in L.A. to win their sixth straight NL West crown.

Chicago will send Jon Lester to the hill Tuesday night. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado. The Cubs are minus-145 favorites, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark. The Rockies are a plus-125 underdog.

Despite losing at home Monday with a chance to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, the Cubs have to feel good about their odds to win Tuesday’s do-or-die contest. There are few pitchers in baseball that are more reliable than Lester in such situations.

Lester is one of the best playoff starters in recent history, posting a career 2.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 148 innings. He’s been especially dominant in the last two years with Chicago, going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 postseason innings. Lester hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven playoff starts.

Lester went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in the regular season.

Freeland will be making his first-ever postseason appearance. The 25-year-old had a terrific regular season, going 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 202.1 innings. He’s surrendered more than three earned runs just once since the middle of June, posting a 2.49 ERA since the All-Star break.

In a start at Wrigley Field on April 30, Freeland picked up the loss while allowing three runs over seven innings. Lester got the victory in that game when he allowed no earned runs in 5.2 innings.

With much more on the line in the rematch, it’d be hard to bet against Lester at home. The veteran has come through for Chicago in big moments time and time again, allowing just four earned runs in 23.2 playoff innings at Wrigley Field.

As effective as Freeland was in the regular season, we don’t know how he’ll respond in a hostile environment with Colorado’s season on the line. You can be sure that Lester will deliver under the bright lights of the postseason.

The bullpens will likely play a large role Tuesday. That’s another area where the Cubs should have the advantage. Chicago relievers have an NL-best 3.35 ERA. Colorado’s bullpen has a 4.62 ERA, though that number would surely be lower if the Rockies played their home games in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Maybe Chicago’s bullpen will cost them at home, just like it did Monday against Milwaukee. But another clutch performance by Lester that leads the Cubs into the NLDS is the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Chicago over Colorado, 4-1