Holiday Sales Forecast to Rise as Retailers Keep Seasonal Hiring Near Last Year’s Level.

Americans are expected to spend more than $1 trillion at retailers this holiday season, but the projected sales increase comes with a more restrained outlook for workers seeking temporary jobs.

The National Retail Federation forecasts retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal employees, roughly in line with last year's estimated 356,000. Meanwhile, November and December sales are expected to increase 4.2% to $1.013 trillion.

The hiring range leaves room for either a decline or a modest increase. Its lower end would represent approximately 31,000 fewer seasonal positions than last year, while the upper end would mean about 19,000 more.

NRF attributes retailers' measured approach to persistent inflation, higher gasoline prices, elevated consumer debt and interest rates. Its forecast covers core retail spending from November 1 through December 31, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

One reason sales and staffing can move differently is that revenue growth reflects prices as well as purchases. According to reporting by The NRF, higher prices account for about half of anticipated holiday sales growth. A larger dollar total therefore does not necessarily mean an equivalent increase in merchandise sold or work required to handle it.

A separate September outlook from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also pointed to cautious staffing. It projected 450,000 retail jobs would be added during the fourth quarter, below the 461,500 added during the same period in 2025.

"But that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest Retailers," Andy Challenger, the firm's chief revenue officer, said in its outlook. He cited greater reliance on existing employees, automation and flexible staffing arrangements.

Indeed Hiring Lab reported that seasonal job postings were approximately 10% higher on September 30 than a year earlier. Desktop searches for seasonal work increased 28%, suggesting interest from job seekers was growing faster than advertised opportunities. Searches do not measure individual applicants or establish how many people ultimately secured employment.

Some employers are also changing the positions they advertise. Among a group of large employers examined by Indeed, the share of postings labeled seasonal fell from 34% to about 20%, while part-time postings increased from 38% to 49%.

Indeed suggested that some businesses may be recruiting for needs extending beyond December. Work is shifting location, too, as loading and stocking positions account for about 9% of seasonal postings, compared with 3.5% in 2019, according to Indeed.

Amazon offered a significant counterexample to restrained hiring Tuesday as the company plans to recruit 300,000 seasonal workers for its U.S. fulfillment and transportation network, up from 250,000 in each of the previous three years.