How Religious Groups Have Changed their Political Allegiances Over the Past Election Cycle

White Catholic voters continue to favor Republicans heading into the November midterm elections, but their support contrasts sharply with Hispanic Catholics and several other religious groups backing Democratic House candidates.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, Republicans lead among White Catholic registered voters by 50% to 32%, while Hispanic Catholics favor Democrats by 59% to 19%. Across Catholics overall, Democrats hold a narrow numerical advantage, 42% to 39%, with another 19% unsure or supporting another candidate.

The divisions extend beyond Catholicism as White evangelical Protestants favor Republican House candidates by 73% to 12%. Black Protestants prefer Democrats by 74% to 6%, while religiously unaffiliated voters support Democrats by 61% to 17%. White nonevangelical Protestants divide 45% Republican to 37% Democratic, a difference Pew says is not statistically significant.

The survey, conducted September 28 through October 4 among 5,062 adults, including 3,917 registered voters, shows why broad descriptions of Christian or religious voters can obscure substantial differences within those categories.

The previous midterms offer a historical comparison. In 2022, White Catholics voted Republican by a 25-percentage-point margin, while Hispanic Catholics favored Democrats by 34 points, according to Pew's validated-voter analysis. The current poll puts those advantages at 18 points and 40 points, respectively.

White evangelical Protestants also remain firmly Republican, although their current preferences are less lopsided than their voting in the previous midterms. In 2022, they supported Republican House candidates by 86% to 12%, an overwhelming 74-point margin. Their current Republican advantage is 61 points.

Religiously unaffiliated voters, including atheists, agnostics and people describing their religion as "nothing in particular," supported Democrats by 72% to 27% in 2022. Their current Democratic advantage is numerically similar, although neither party reaches its previous vote share because some respondents remain uncommitted.

The 2024 presidential election demonstrated that familiar religious alliances can persist while the margins change. Donald Trump won Protestant voters by 62% to 36% and Catholics by 55% to 43%, according to Pew. Catholics had divided almost evenly in 2020, when Joe Biden received 50% and Trump 49%.

Among religiously unaffiliated voters, Kamala Harris won 70% to Trump's 28% in 2024, close to Biden's 71% to 26% advantage four years earlier. White evangelical Protestants remained a central Republican constituency, with 81% supporting Trump in 2024, compared with 83% in 2020.

Participation helped determine those outcomes. Pew found that Trump's Catholic gains reflected both voters switching candidates and changes in turnout. Seven percent of Catholics who backed Biden in 2020 moved to Trump in 2024, while 4% of Catholic Trump voters switched to Harris.

The remaining improvement came from differences in who voted. Religious attendance also divided the electorate in the last midterms. Voters attending services at least monthly favored Republicans by 67% to 31% in 2022. Those attending a few times a year or less preferred Democrats by 56% to 42%.

Jewish voters also favor Democrats in separate national polling. A GBAO Strategies survey for the Jewish Voters Resource Center found that 67% planned to support Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 26% backing Republicans.

Conducted August 26 through September 1 among 800 self-identified Jewish voters, the survey had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. Its 41-point Democratic advantage compares with the 36-point margin Jewish voters gave Democratic House candidates in 2022, according to Pew. Different samples and methods prevent treating that comparison as a precise measure of movement.

Among Muslim voters, separate research documents a fractured Democratic coalition in the last presidential election, although it does not provide a comparable 2026 congressional preference. The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding's American Muslim Poll, fielded by NORC in April and May 2025, found that 50% of Muslim voters reported supporting Kamala Harris in 2024, 31% Donald Trump and 12% Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

The same survey found that only 55% of Muslims who reported voting for Joe Biden in 2020 backed Harris four years later. Another 10% supported Trump, 16% chose another candidate and 19% did not vote for president.