Inflation Decelerated In June. But Grocery Shopping In The U.S. Decreased Anyway

The buying of grocery units fell 1.8% in June compared to the previous year, according to a new analysis.

The study, conducted by Bain & Company using NielsenIQ grocery and published by CNBC, shows a reversal compared to the 0.1% increase recorded in June 2025.

"That big grocery stock up trip that costs you $300 in 2019, now costing you $400," Kurt Grichel, head of Bain's America retail practice, told the outlet.

"Even that upper-income consumer, you're talking a big enough absolute dollar change that people start to feel a little bit of that sticker shock and start to shop around," he added.

The company says several pressure points are impacting consumers at the moment. They involve higher grocery prices, elevated fuel costs and reduced SNAP benefits conducted by the Trump administration.

The company's Consumer Pulse Wave survey, which took place in May, showed that four in five Americans are trying to spend less, while more than one in four are actively cutting back on grocery spending. More than half of then are resorting to cheaper brands and 49% are buying fewer items.

Another data point has shown that workers have seen little improvement in their purchasing power since President Donald Trump returned to office, with pay increases largely offset by rising prices over the past 18 months.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, matching the annual inflation rate of 3.5% over the same period. After adjusting for inflation, workers are earning about 27 cents more per hour than they were in January 2025, leaving many households with little sense that their financial situation has materially improved.

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.8% in June from the previous month, the largest monthly gain in more than a year after lower gasoline prices helped pull down overall inflation, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data analyzed by The Washington Post.

The June improvement followed several months of weak or negative real wage growth. Inflation climbed as high as 4.2% in May before easing in June, while inflation-adjusted hourly earnings increased from approximately $37.37 at the start of Trump's current term to about $37.64 last

Economists say broad averages often fail to capture the experience of workers whose raises have not kept pace with higher prices.

"No matter what we see in the averages, there's going to be a lot of people whose wages are simply not keeping up with inflation," Betsey Stevenson, a former Labor Department chief economist and current University of Michigan professor told The Washington Post.

"So they just can't buy the same bundle of goods that they could have bought a year ago," Stevenson added.