Tensions Have Flared Up Around Hormuz Again. Now Iran is Signaling that A Key Red Sea Gateway Could Be Next

Iran is signaling that it may expand pressure on global shipping beyond the Strait of Hormuz by leveraging its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Together, the two chokepoints are among the world's most strategically important shipping lanes, carrying significant amounts of oil and commercial cargo. Reuters reported that the strategy would allow Iran to widen the conflict beyond the Persian Gulf and increase economic pressure on Washington and its allies.

The latest warning came from Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of Yemen's Ansarullah movement, better known as the Houthis. According to a quote cited by Reuters from Iran's Press TV, al-Farah said Yemen's armed forces were prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continued military operations against Yemen.

"If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance," al-Farah warned, adding that oil prices could surge to as much as $200 per barrel under such a scenario.

The comments come as U.S. military strikes inside Iran intensify and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue, fueling concerns that the conflict could spread across multiple theaters and further disrupt global commerce. Disruption of ships through the Strait of Hormuz since early March has caused oil prices to surge dramatically.

Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges told Reuters that Tehran is seeking to demonstrate it can threaten both critical maritime chokepoints simultaneously. "Iran is willing to go all the way," Gerges said. "Now (Tehran) is escalating both near and wide. The message is that not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk."

Dennis Ross, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, said Washington's challenge is finding a way to alter Tehran's calculations enough to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. "The issue is, how do you change the Iranian calculus to the point where they're ready, again, to talk," Ross told Reuters, adding that any future negotiations would need to produce an arrangement acceptable to both sides.

The Bab el-Mandeb has already proven vulnerable in recent years. Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis launched repeated attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting vessels connected to Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza.

Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf governments increasingly believe diplomatic efforts with Iran have reached their limits, even as they recognize that any wider regional conflict would carry severe consequences.

Sager noted that while the Houthis still possess the capability to threaten navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb, they are unlikely to significantly escalate operations without explicit direction from Tehran. He added that any sustained effort to block shipping would likely provoke a much broader military response from the United States and its allies aimed at degrading the group's military capabilities.