The last time the Kansas City Chiefs played the New England Patriots, it felt like a high-stakes matchup despite being merely a Week 6 primetime game. On Sunday, the Chiefs will host the Patriots for a shot at the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1970.

Oddsmakers have the Chiefs as three-point favorites over the Patriots, according to Bovada. It is only the seventh time Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been a postseason underdog, and Brady was 3-3 in the previous six games. The most recent game was the 2013 AFC Championship Game at Denver, which the Patriots lost 26-16.

The over/under for the game is set at 57.5. Those who watched the first matchup between these two teams might be inclined to take the over; the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 on a last-second field goal in Foxboro.

However, for betting purposes, the under might be a smarter move this time. The Chiefs’ much-maligned defense was statistically better this season at Arrowhead Stadium, allowing an average of 17.4 points per game, as opposed to 26.3 points per game on the season.

The Indianapolis Colts only managed 13 points in their divisional round loss at Kansas City, and seven of those came on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown.

The Patriots, meanwhile, were a demonstrably worse team on the road in 2018. They averaged 19.8 points per game and were just 3-5 away from Foxboro. All five of those losses came to teams that missed the playoffs.

Quarterback Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts greeted quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs following the AFC Divisional Playoff at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. David Eulitt/Getty Images