The Dallas Cowboys don’t beat good teams. It’s been the story of their 2019 NFL season, and it’s why they could miss the playoffs despite being part of an incredibly weak division.

The defending NFC East champions have yet another chance to get their first victory over a team that has a winning record. The Cowboys will host the Los Angeles Rams in one of the biggest games on the Week 15 schedule.

Dallas opened as a 3.5-point favorite, according to OddsShark. The point spread is down to a pick’em. The total is 49.

Week 14 caused a significant shift in the betting line. Seventy-two hours after the Cowboys were embarrassed in a loss to the Chicago Bears, the Rams had an impressive 28-12 victory over the Seattle Seahawks on “Sunday Night Football.”

The win put Los Angeles at 8-5 on the season. Dallas is 0-6 against teams that enter Week 15 with a record above .500.

Los Angeles beat Dallas 30-22 in the divisional round of the 2019 playoffs.

The Rams are two games ahead of the Cowboys in the overall standings. Because the San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West at 11-2 and the Minnesota Vikings are the No.6 seed at 9-4, Sunday’s contest is a virtual must-win game for L.A. as they seek a wild-card berth.

A wild-card spot is out of the question for the Cowboys. Dallas’ only path to the postseason is an NFC East title. The Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are both 6-7. Dallas currently owns the tiebreaker atop the division.

Los Angeles hasn’t looked like the same team that went to last year’s Super Bowl. The offense has been inconsistent behind a poor offensive line. Jared Goff has put up his worst numbers since his rookie season.

The NFL’s top defenses have found success against Sean McVay’s offense, which led the NFC in points scored in both 2017 and 2018. The 49ers, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers all held the Rams to 17 points or fewer. Los Angeles’ offense produced an average of 8.25 points in those games.

The Rams are scoring 29.9 points per game in their other nine contests. L.A. just moved the ball with ease against poor Seattle and Arizona defenses. No matter what some of the numbers might say, Dallas doesn’t have a good defense.

It was proven again in Week 14 when the Cowboys allowed Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears’ offense to have their best game of 2019. Dallas gave up 26 points to the Buffalo Bills a week earlier. Four of the Cowboys’ last five opponents have scored at least 26 points.

Jared Goff Todd Gurley Rams
Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams hands off to Todd Gurley #30 in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on January 12, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. Harry How/Getty Images

L.A. won’t need to score a ton of points in order to leave AT&T Stadium with a win. The Rams’ defense is rounding into form. After a strong performance against Russell Wilson, Los Angeles is up to fifth in opponents’ yards per play and eighth in total yards allowed.

If you take away a pair of dreadful games against Baltimore and Tampa Bay, Los Angeles is only surrendering 14.7 points per game. The New England Patriots are the only team giving up fewer than 15 points per game this season.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ No.1 ranked offense continue to come up short against competent defenses. There’s little reason to believe that will change now.

The Rams are 6-1 against the spread when playing outside of Los Angeles. L.A. is 6-1 straight up against teams with losing records.

Prediction: Los Angeles over Dallas, 24-20