Less Than Half of Republicans Are Still Optimistic About Trump’s Tariffs, Data Shows

Confidence in President Donald Trump's tariffs among members of the GOP has weakened, with just four in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expecting the trade policies to have mostly positive effects on the country in the coming years.

The Pew Research Center found that share has fallen from 52% in August 2025 and 49% in January 2026, showing a weakening outlook within the president's own political coalition.

The findings come from Pew's survey of 5,062 U.S. adults conducted September 28 through October 4, as voters gear up for the November midterm elections.

Expectations across the broader political were considerably more negative. Fifty-six percent anticipated mostly negative effects from the administration's tariffs, compared with 20% expecting mostly positive consequences and 22% predicting mixed results.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents remained overwhelmingly pessimistic. 83% expected mostly negative effects, a position Pew described as little changed since last year.

The larger movement occurred among Republicans. Their positive expectations declined by 12 percentage points between August 2025 and October 2026. Over that period, the share predicting mixed consequences increased from 27% to 34%, while negative expectations rose from 21% to 26%.

The findings place fading Republican tariff optimism alongside broader concerns about the administration's economic record. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 39% said Trump's economic policies had improved conditions, down from 57% in January. Meanwhile, 35% said those policies had made conditions worse, nearly double the 18% who said so at the start of the year.

Another 25% said the policies had not had much effect. Republicans also gave the national economy lower ratings. Thirty-six percent described conditions as excellent or good, compared with 41% in July and 49% in January. Twenty-three percent called conditions poor, up from 19% in July.

Although Republicans remained more optimistic than Democrats about the year ahead, their expectations had weakened substantially. Forty-one percent expected the economy to improve over the next year, compared with 57% in January and 73% in February 2025.

Household costs were prominent concerns across party lines. Among Republicans, 65% said they were very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, while 62% expressed that level of concern about food and consumer goods. Majorities also reported being very concerned about health care costs, at 57%, and housing costs, at 53%.

Democrats expressed greater concern on each of those measures, but the Republican figures showed that anxiety about essential expenses extended well into the president's political base.

Nationally, 74% were very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 60% in July and 43% in January. Seventy-three percent were very concerned about food and consumer goods.