Almost 4 in 10 Americans Don’t Trust the Integrity of the Upcoming Midterms, Poll Shows

Almost 4 in 10 Americans don't believe the 2026 midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, according to a new poll.

The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found that 61% of Americans are confident in the administration of the elections, while 38% are not. Confidence rises above two-thirds among registered voters, suggesting those preparing to participate have greater trust in the process than the public overall.

Democrats and Republicans expressed similar confidence, at 70% and 67%, respectively. Independents were more divided, with 51% believing the elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, while 47% lack confidence.

The findings show substantial agreement between the two major parties on election administration ahead of the November 3 vote. However, nearly 4 in 10 Americans remain unconvinced that the process will be fair and accurate.

Asked specifically about counting ballots, 65% of Americans said they are confident votes will be counted accurately, including 26% who are very confident. Among registered voters, overall confidence reaches 72%.

Democrats again expressed the greatest trust, with 76% confident in the vote count, compared with 68% of Republicans and 55% of independents. Confidence also extends across much of Trump's political base. 65% of MAGA Republicans and 66% of his 2024 voters expect ballots to be counted accurately.

Americans were considerably more skeptical when asked whether Trump would accept the results if Republicans lose. Seven in 10 said they are not confident he would do so, including half who are not at all confident. Just 28% expressed confidence, with only 10% saying they are very confident.

94% of Democrats doubted he would accept Republican losses, including 79% who expressed no confidence at all. Among independents, 77% lacked confidence, with 55% not at all confident.

Republicans viewed the president differently. A 63% majority said he would accept an unfavorable outcome, although only 25% were very confident. Among MAGA Republicans, confidence reached 74%. The poll also found that 61% of Americans believe Trump is not committed to free and fair elections, up from 56% in 2025. Thirty-seven percent said he is committed.

Democratic leaders received stronger marks on accepting defeat, although responses remained sharply partisan. Overall, 61% were confident Democrats would accept losses, while 38% were not. Confidence reached 88% among Democrats and 58% among independents, while 63% of Republicans lacked confidence.

Expectations for House control favored Democrats, but uncertainty remained substantial. Thirty-five percent expected Democrats to win, compared with 16% who anticipated Republican control. Another 28% called it a toss-up, and 21% were unsure.

Democratic candidates led Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters in the survey. That national preference measures congressional vote choice; it does not directly predict how many individual House seats either party will win.

The poll surveyed 2,545 adults Oct. 9-13 through Ipsos' probability-based KnowledgePanel. The overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points, rising to 2.2 points among registered and likely voters.