Vladimir Putin
Denmark warned that there is a "low but growing risk" that Russia could launch an attack against a NATO country in the next months. AFP

Danish intelligence is warning that there is a "low but growing risk" that Russia will attack a NATO country in the coming months as tensions between Moscow and the alliance continue to rise.

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service released a report noting that Russia has "intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyber attacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones," concluding that "hybrid war is escalating."

It went on to recall a foiled drone attack in Germany, which Berlin openly blamed on Moscow, noting that it has "become more willing to take risks." And warned of potential "sabotage on Danish soil against defence companies."

Elsewhere in the report, the agency noted that Russia is "under more pressure than it has been at any other point during the war against Ukraine," sustaining heavy losses on the battlefield and with the economy "on the brink of a major crisis."

The document then notes that Russia has no prospect of "achieving any major breakthroughs in the war against Ukraine over the next six months," and it's unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will "be willing to compromise on his fundamental objectives of war."

And considering that "Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability by 2030," which will "pose an increasing threat to Russia," the coming years will be a "window of opportunity" for Moscow. This context could lead Putin to conclude that "it is worth the risk attempting to drastically change the security order in Europe."

This scenario could likely involve intensifying hybrid war "by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past." Examples include "destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties."

There is also a risk of the mentioned limited military attack against NATO countries bordering Russia, which could happen "even if Russia continues the war against Ukraine and has not built the military capabilities necessary to wage a regional war." The eventual attack would likely seek to "redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response."

Another possibility is Russia deploying a "limited number of military forces, possibly
without national insignia, into NATO countries bordering Russia." That would be preceded by a buildup of regular forces to counter a potential response.

The agency does not see indications of an "outright invasion of one or several NATO countries." Even if it does, it would likely take at least six months to prepare it. And while an attack would not seek to trigger a war with the alliance, Moscow can't now for sure what would.

Russia Ukraine