NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 9 Include Steelers, Patriots, Titans

During a week that features mostly small betting lines, the Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys are all favored by well over a field goal at home, according to the Las Vegas betting odds. The Pittsburgh Steelers are catching a field goal for their road game with the Baltimore Ravens in the schedule’s biggest rivalry matchup. The contest between the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans features Sunday’s smallest point spread.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings and Detroit Lions might only be separated by a game in the NFC North standings, but Minnesota is the much better team. They’ll prove it by winning handily in Week 9.

Detroit could be in for an extended losing streak after getting blown out at home by Seattle and trading Golden Tate to the Eagles for a third-round draft. The deal will help the Lions in the future since Tate was likely to walk as a free agent, but it’s certainly going to hurt them this season. Tate led the team in receiving yards, catches and targets, and losing him will be an issue against a defense that’s third in opponents’ yards per play over the last three weeks. The return of Everson Griffen could also be key.

With Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen putting up big numbers each week, Minnesota has the sixth-ranked passing attack. Detroit is second-to-last in opponents’ passer rating. The Lions have covered the spread in just four of their last 13 road games against the Vikings, per OddsShark.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

This is a different Steelers’ team than the one that lost at home to the Baltimore Ravens 26-14 in Week 4. Pittsburgh has a great chance to get some revenge when they visit their AFC North rivals Sunday afternoon.

The No.1 reason for the Steelers' three-game winning streak has been their defense. Pittsburgh didn’t give up more than 21 points in any game when facing the Falcons, Bengals and Browns. They actually rank first in opponents’ yards per play during that stretch, putting them ahead of Baltimore’s No.1 ranked defense. The Steelers should be able to get plenty of stops against a Ravens’ offense that’s 31st in yards per carry with Joe Flacco ranking 25th in passer rating.

Drew Brees and Cam Newton had success against Baltimore's defense in consecutive games. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense should play well enough for the Steelers to either win outright or keep this game within a field goal.

Denver Broncos (-1)

The Houston Texans have put together one of the most unimpressive five-game winning streaks you’ll find. There’s a good chance it’ll come to an end when they visit Denver.

Houston is the best team in the AFC South, but that isn’t exactly saying much. They’ve beaten the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jaguars and Dolphins, none of whom have winning records. The Texans started the year with losses at New England and Tennessee, and they’ll struggle in one of the most difficult environments for any opposing team to play. As much as they’ve struggled overall, the Broncos are 2-2 at home, having lost to Chiefs and Rams by a combined seven points.

The battle between Denver’s pass rush and Houston’s offensive line could be what ultimately puts the Broncos over the top. Denver is tied for second with 24 sacks, and Deshaun Watson gets hit more than any other quarterback in the league. The loss of Will Fuller is more important than Houston’s addition of Demaryius Thomas, and it could be a long day for the Texans’ quarterback.

New England Patriots (-6)

All eyes will be on Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers Sunday night, but they won’t be the only two players that determine the outcome of this marquee matchup. The Patriots are simply a much better team than the Green Bay Packers, and they should win by at least a touchdown.

The Rams enter Week 9 without a loss and as the Super Bowl favorites, but the Patriots might very well be the best team in football. They’ve won five straight games and have looked unstoppable with both Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman in the lineup. Green Bay’s defense didn’t exactly get better this week when the Packers traded Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for a draft pick, and they’ll have trouble slowing down an offense that’s scored at least 38 points in each of their last three home games.

New England’s defense has improved as the year has gone on. The Patriots are fourth in opponents’ passer rating, and the Chiefs are the only opponent that’s scored more than 24 points in Foxborough. If New England can get a few early stops it will be difficult for Rodgers and Green Bay to keep up with the defending AFC champs.

Tennessee Titans (+6.5)

It doesn’t make much sense that the Cowboys are laying nearly a touchdown to a team that hasn’t been awful. Even if Tennessee can’t pull off the upset, this game probably won’t be decided by more than a few points.

Dallas’ 40-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 6 was an aberration. The Cowboys haven’t scored more than 26 points in any other game, and they are one of seven teams that isn’t averaging more than 20 points per game. Adding Amari Cooper, who was a major disappointment in Oakland this season, won’t change that, at least not right away, Tennessee has an above-average run defense. Dallas will be held to one or two touchdowns if Ezekiel Elliott can’t dominate.

The Titans might not have a ton of talent on offense, but they are well-coached and find ways to keep games close. They nearly defeated the Chargers in London two weeks ago, playing their fifth game that was decided by a field goal or less. Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 23 points in a game since the season opener.

Season Record: 20-16-4