NFL Week 4 Picks Against The Spread 2018: Predictions ATS, Updated Odds For Every Game

It’s been a big year for underdogs in the early going with favorites posting a 19-26-1 record through the first three weeks of the NFL season. Four teams are home underdogs on the upcoming schedule, and only two favorites are laying less than a field goal.

Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 4 of the 2018 season, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Los Angeles Rams

Forget about Minnesota’s loss to Buffalo. It was an aberration, and the Vikings are still one of the NFC’s best teams. Look for a better performance from Minnesota’s offensive line, which could allow Kirk Cousins to pick apart a banged up Rams’ secondary. Los Angeles only scored seven points when they visited the Vikings last season. Minnesota could slow down Jared Goff and Co. enough to pull off the upset and hand L.A. their first loss.

Prediction ATS: Minnesota

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Tennessee Titans

Home underdogs have been terrific against the spread in the early going, and this is another case in which a road favorite could be in trouble. Even with Carson Wentz back under center, Philadelphia’s offense struggled last week. Tennessee’s last two games have totaled fewer than 40 points and have been decided by a field goal. Sunday’s contest could be more of the same.

Prediction ATS: Tennessee

Buffalo Bills (+10) at Green Bay Packers

Even after scoring 27 points at Minnesota, Buffalo’s offense remains awful. The Bills took advantage of a couple of Vikings’ turnovers, and they are still last in yards per play. Green Bay’s offensive line should hold up much better than Minnesota’s did, giving Aaron Rodgers enough time to put up big numbers.

Prediction ATS: Green Bay

Detroit Lions (+3) at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas might be in for one of their best offensive games of the year. Ezekiel Elliott could have a huge day against the defense that ranks last in both total rushing yards allowed and opponents’ yards per carry. Only the Ravens have allowed fewer yards per play than the Cowboys. Dallas has given up 15.6 points per game over their last eight contests.

Prediction ATS: Dallas

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Chicago Bears

Chicago's inability to move the ball nearly cost them in Arizona. The Bears might not be so lucky against a team that has a competent quarterback. The Buccaneers are first in yards per play, and the Bears rank third from the bottom. Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston under center, the Buccaneers have a good chance to pull off the upset if the quarterback can avoid throwing a pick-six or committing multiple costly turnovers.

Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay

New York Jets (+7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sam Darnold is going to have a long, long afternoon against Jacksonville’s defense. The rookie quarterback has thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions when facing two good defenses. Maybe Blake Bortles will have one of his good games, but it might not matter if the Jaguars’ defense can score a touchdown of their own.

Prediction ATS: Jacksonville

Miami Dolphins (+7) at New England Patriots

The Patriots will be one of the AFC’s best teams when the season ends. They just don’t seem to be there right now. Tom Brady can’t do much when Julian Edelman is suspended and his current receivers can’t get open. New England has lost multiple running backs to injuries, and the defense simply hasn’t been good. It only makes sense to grab the seven points with an undefeated Dolphins’ team that has played relatively well on both sides of the ball.

Prediction ATS: Miami

Houston Texans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

This is a game the Colts should win. Houston is still winless, and they weren’t even able to beat the Giants at home in Week 3. Indianapolis is probably better than they were projected to be with a defense that allowed just 29 total points in Philadelphia and Washington. The Texans have just one victory since they beat the Browns in Week 6 last year.

Prediction ATS: Indianapolis

Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Atlanta Falcons

Once a promising defense, Atlanta has been decimated by injuries. First, it was Pro Bowlers Deion Jones and Keanu Neal that went down. Now, starting safety Ricardo Allen is done for the year. The Falcons could have plenty of shootouts like the overtime loss they had with the Saints last week. Cincinnati’s offense is 10th in yards per play, and they could put up a lot of points if A.J. Green is close to being completely healthy.

Prediction ATS: Cincinnati

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Who knows how Josh Rosen will perform in his first start? He didn’t play well when thrown into the fire last week, though coming in late against a very good Bears’ defense was never going to end well for the rookie. Taking the Seahawks, who have a veteran quarterback and a defense that’s played well in the last two weeks, might be the safest bet.

Prediction ATS: Seattle

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders

If the Raiders can’t win Sunday, they might be hard-pressed to get a victory anytime soon. Oakland has been in all three of their games, never trailing at halftime but running out of gas in every fourth quarter. Unlike the Jets last week, the Raiders will be prepared for Baker Mayfield. It won’t be easy for the rookie to replicate his performance in a tough environment on the west coast.

Prediction ATS: Oakland

San Francisco 49ers (+10.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The 49ers lost by double-digits in four of C.J. Beathard’s five starts last season, losing by 23 points in his one road start. Only five teams have allowed more points than San Francisco, and they are simply a bad team without Jimmy Garoppolo. The Chargers took care of business when they beat the Bills by 11 points on the road two weeks ago. Los Angeles should dominate, once again.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at New York Giants

It’s hard to see the Giants keeping pace with a Saints’ offense that’s fourth in yards and second in points. Drew Brees to Michael Thomas is the league’s most unstoppable connection at the moment. It could be deadly against a Giants’ defense that doesn’t have much of a pass rush. New York hasn’t scored 30 points since the 2015 season.

Prediction ATS: New Orleans

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Taking the points is probably the best move here. Pittsburgh’s defense has been awful, and the team that has the ball last could very well end up winning. The Steelers have covered the spread just once in their last five home games against the Ravens. Baltimore is first in yards allowed per play, and they’ve scored at least 23 points in all three games.

Prediction ATS: Baltimore

Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Denver Broncos

This will be Patrick Mahomes’ toughest test thus far, going on the road to face the team that has as big of a home-field advantage as anyone. The quarterback has been throwing to plenty of open receivers during his MVP-caliber start, and he’s bound to start making a few mistakes at some point. Perhaps it’ll come on the road against a division opponent that has a decent defense, though the unit hasn’t played great for the first three weeks. Even if Mahomes has a few more touchdown passes, Case Keenum could bounce back against a defense that’s 30th in opponents’ yards per play and dead last in total defense.

Prediction ATS: Denver

Season Record: 23-24-1

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