The US Economy Defies Omicron—Can It Defy Food And Energy Inflation?
The U.S. economy has defied the lingering effects of the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, growing at healthy rates and creating jobs for hundreds of thousands of Americans returning to work.
A report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that American businesses added 678,000 new jobs in February 2022, up from 481,000 in January 2022. The February employment numbers were the highest seen in seven months and above market expectations. Job gains were led by leisure and hospitality (179,000), healthcare (64,000) and construction (60,000). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in February from 4% in January, slightly below expectations.
The strong jobs report came a week after another government report, which showed that the U.S. economy grew 7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, providing the impetus for solid job gains.
"After a turbulent year for the U.S. job market, we are finally approaching the light at the end of the tunnel," said Raul Villar Jr., chief executive officer at Paycor, a global leader in human capital management (HCM). "As thousands add to the workforce, businesses and employers nationwide must focus on strategies for retaining and attracting top-tier talent. We are turning a corner in the job market, and there is an expectation from employees for increased emphasis on job flexibility and work-from-home policies."
Cody Harker, senior director of Insights & Strategy at Bayard, thinks the report is good news for job seekers.
"From the job seeker perspective, it's a positive sign that today's jobs report met expectations, showing we are still in a period of growth with many opportunities for job seekers looking to get involved in or return to the labor force," says Harker. "Last month at Bayard, we saw a 5% overall increase in click volume on job ads – signifying that there was higher job seeker intent than in previous year's months. With only a modest increase in click volume, we observed better downstream conversion rates, signifying the 'window shopper effect' - with people looking at job ads without planning to apply or interview - that we sometimes observe in high job seeker traffic months did not occur.
"Quite the opposite, job seekers seemed eager to take the next step in pursuing jobs on the heels of the Omicron variant peak. Whether this trend persists in March or beyond remains to be seen - we're keen to continue to observe traffic trends over the upcoming weeks."
SThe strong jobs report comes against the background of spiking food and energy inflation, which is made worse by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Both countries are major wheat producers, the raw material for many food products, and Russia is a significant energy producer.
The spike in inflation has placed the Federal Reserve on alert, which has already announced its intention to raise interest rates several times this year. That's certainly not a good development for the U.S. economy, as higher rates are followed by slower growth and a slower pace of job creation.
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