Ron Paul Surges in Iowa: How Far Can He Go?

Why Paul, and Why Now?

Follow us

Paul does not have the broadest appeal among the Republican candidates, but his support is probably the deepest. That is to say, while supporters of Cain, Gingrich and to some extent Romney have bounced from candidate to candidate, Paul's supporters have remained fiercely loyal to his campaign -- and in a race as volatile as this one, that consistency may help him.

"Turnout will probably be lower than in 2008 because there are not the kind of hyper-developed ground efforts like we saw in 2008, 2000 or 1996," Gentry Collins, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The Washington Post. "I think that benefits a candidate like Paul because the depth of his appeal will guarantee him a minimum number."

There are several factors contributing to Paul's strength in Iowa. The biggest is the extent of his ground efforts: the recent Bloomberg poll found that 67 percent of likely Republican voters had been contacted by Paul's campaign. By comparison, just 47 percent had been contacted by Rick Perry's campaign, 46 percent by Romney's campaign and 41 percent by Cain's campaign.

Direct voter outreach is much more important in caucus states like Iowa than in states that hold primaries, because caucuses require more voter involvement. Instead of just pulling a lever, voters attend caucuses around the state and give speeches in support of their preferred candidates.

This structure benefits candidates like Paul, whose supporters are dedicated enough to commit that amount of time and effort, and it tends to suppress turnout among people who prefer other candidates but aren't enthusiastic enough about them to attend a caucus.

"Paul's backers are made to order for a low-turnout caucus," Sabato told IBTimes. "They are highly motivated to organize and show up at the caucuses, which require a couple of hours or more of participation."

Independents can also participate in the Republican caucuses in Iowa, as opposed to many other states, in which only registered Republicans can vote in a primary or caucus. This, too, is to Paul's advantage, because he has more independent support than his competitors.

Paul "will benefit more than other candidates from our registration rules, as independents, libertarians [and] Democrats can effectively become Republicans for a night and caucus for Paul," an anonymous Republican operative told The Washington Post. "Anecdotally, I have encountered more than a few self-described liberals who will caucus for Paul due to his anti-war stance."

He will also benefit from the support of Iowa's many social conservatives, who have been unable to rally around any candidate for more than a few weeks since Michele Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll in August. (Paul finished a close second in the straw poll.) He has run ads directly targeting those voters, including one memorable anti-abortion ad in which he described seeing doctors perform an abortion and throw the fetus in a trash can, and then, just a few minutes later, work frantically to save a premature baby.