Commodities

May 23 2013 11:53 AM

If you want an objective view of energy, ask an economist, who can tell you what to expect to pay at the pump in the coming years, and why, as well as what to expect from medium- and long-term economic growth and what the real drivers will be. These are questions that are crucial to a pending decision by the US government over natural gas exports, and while we know where big oil stands versus its manufacturing rivals—it's the economist who can set things straight. Mark Thoma is a macroeconomist and time-series econometrician at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on how monetary policy affects the economy, and he has also worked on political business cycle models. Mark is currently a fellow at The Century Foundation, a columnist at The Fiscal Times, an analyst at CBS MoneyWatch, and he blogs daily at Economist's View.

May 22 2013 10:43 AM

Brent crude oil fell on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in US gasoline stockpiles reignited worries that the summer driving season's demand in the number one oil consuming nation may be weaker than anticipated. The commodity traded at $103.21 at 9:18 GMT on Wednesday morning. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute released data that showed that US gasoline inventories jumped by 3 million barrels last week. The figures indicated that the nation is well supplied as it moves into the summer, which tends to be a peak driving season.

May 20 2013 9:03 AM

Brent crude oil traded steadily at $104.62 on Monday morning at 5:58 GMT as the commodity inched towards $105 on improving economic data and strong equity markets. However, a tepid demand outlook and market oversupply kept a lid on prices. Last week, the International Energy Agency forecast both waning oil demand growth and increasing supply which put pressure on Brent prices. At the moment, the markets are well supplied; and with most of the world's largest consumers struggling to kick start their economies, crude demand has shown no signs of improvement.

May 17 2013 8:03 AM

A strong dollar and demand worries kept Brent under pressure on Friday morning after news that the US Federal Reserve may end its monetary stimulus lifted the greenback. Brent is poised to end the week with little change and traded at $104.15 at 9:41 GMT on Friday morning. CNBC reported that three Federal Reserve officials were calling for an end to the US central bank's monetary stimulus program. The news strengthened the dollar and made oil more expensive to holders of other currencies. Moving forward, most will be watching for major changes in the dollar, as the greenback is expected to drive oil prices in the short term.

May 16 2013 7:55 AM

Oil prices continued their decline for the sixth trading session (basis WTI) in row as the current fundamentals point to lower prices. The market remains focused on projections for lower oil demand growth, robust supply and building inventories. Yesterday total crude oil and refined product inventories built again in the US by 2.6 million barrels (see below for a more detailed discussion on this week's inventory report). Further adding to the concern in the market has been macroeconomic data that continues to suggest that the global economy is faltering. Yesterday GDP data out of Europe showed France now moving into recession with the overall EU recession deepening a tad last quarter.

May 16 2013 7:44 AM

Brent crude oil slid toward $103 on Thursday following an unexpected drop in US factory output. The data added to uncertainty about future demand and brought Brent prices down to $103.14 at 9:20 GMT on Thursday morning. A steep drop in US factory output caused concern among investors who worried about the state of the global economy. Many attributed the lack of demand for exports to the ongoing eurozone recession and sluggish growth in China.

May 15 2013 8:31 AM

For the first time in well over a week the spot Nat Gas contract was able to settle above the key $4/mmbtu technical resistance area. The market has been in the midst of a short covering rally since trading began on Monday. The majority of the upside move and breaching of the $4/mmbtu is mostly driven by a technical move as the overall fundamentals have not changed all that much over the last week or so. Technically the spot futures contract is now in a new higher trading range of $4/mmbtu on the support side and $4.16/mmbtu as the upper resistance level. I am still of the view that the market will need fundamentals support to sustain a move to the upside from current levels.

May 15 2013 8:20 AM

Brent crude oil slid toward $102 on Wednesday as rising supply and waning demand kept a lid on prices. The commodity traded at $102.22 at 7:47 GMT on Wednesday morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that a figures from the International Energy Agency on Tuesday showed that output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased to 30.7 million barrels per day from 200,000 bpd. According to the IEA, that exceeds the world's needs by about 1.8 million barrels.

May 14 2013 8:48 AM

Brent crude oil neared $103 on Tuesday as hopes that the US economy was getting back on track countered the commodity's losses due to waning demand. Brent traded steadily at $102.92 at 6:12 GMT on Tuesday morning. The commodity suffered losses on Monday after Chinese refineries dropped their processing to an eight month low. Businessweek reported that the nation's refining slipped to 9.36 million barrels per day, eight percent lower than December's record. China's apparent oil demand also fell to an 8 month low in April and reconfirmed concern about the nation's lack of recovery.