Florida Primary 2012 Results: What Romney's Win Means

"Gingrich has been outspent 5 to 1 by Romney, the GOP establishment made it clear they regarded him as a potential landslide loser, and he also did poorly in both Florida debates," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "This is a toxic combination."

Reclaiming Electability

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Throughout the 2012 campaign, one of Romney's strongest arguments has been this: he may not be the unwavering conservative that the Republican rank and file is searching for, but he has the best chance of beating President Barack Obama come November. In other words, his opponents may be more ideologically "pure," but they can't win.

Gingrich has fought mightily to reverse that perception, telling voters that the only way to defeat Obama is to nominate someone who presents a clear ideological contrast. As evidence, he points to the 1980 presidential election, when the conservative Ronald Reagan beat the moderate George H.W. Bush in the primaries and went on to claim a landslide victory over Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter. And in South Carolina, Gingrich succeeded: among voters who cited electability as their primary concern, more voted for Gingrich than for Romney.

But Florida voters -- likely swayed by the Romney campaign's relentless attacks on Gingrich's past, both personal and professional -- didn't buy it, and Romney's victory here is the strongest statement yet that he alone holds the electability card with most voters.

Florida is by far the largest and most diverse state that has voted so far this year. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are small, and their Republican electorates are largely homogeneous. Evangelical Christians and social conservatives dominate Iowa and South Carolina, and they gave victories to Santorum and Gingrich, respectively. New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate, and they voted for Romney. Florida was the first test of the candidates' ability to appeal to many demographics at once, and in turn their ability to be competitive on the national stage.

"It's certainly what the Republicans in Florida had intended to project by skipping ahead of the whole calendar, because Republicans here know that a Republican cannot win the White House without winning Florida," said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. "They wanted to weigh in on the process earlier, so that sooner rather than later, these candidates had to campaign and appeal to a larger and more diverse audience."

Romney passed that test, and his victory here "speaks volumes" about his national viability, MacManus said.

On the other hand, Gingrich is undeniably better than Romney at generating enthusiasm for his candidacy. Even many of those who support Romney aren't excited about doing so, and that could be a handicap for Romney in the general election. The demographic breakdown of his support in Florida will give some indication of his national prospects.

"Even if he wins handily [in Florida], if most of the Tea Party voters vote for Gingrich or Santorum, then it raises questions not so much about whether Romney would get their votes, but about how enthusiastic they would be, and whether as many Tea Partiers would get out to vote in the first place" in the general election, said Richard Niemi, a political scientist at the University of Rochester. "The Tea Partiers are not likely to vote for Obama over Romney, but they may or may not be excited enough to get out to vote in large numbers. While it [Florida] is a very good sign for Romney ... exactly what that means for his chances in November is really hard to say."

But despite the lingering questions about Romney's electability, Gingrich will have a hard time arguing post-Florida that he is stronger in that regard.