Nvidia Loses Market Share to AMD in Upgradable GPU Configurations: Analyst

By | November 28 2011 6:45 AM

Shares of graphics chip maker Nvidia, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVDA) have outperformed in recent time, following better-than-expected results and guidance, news reports of Graphics Processor Unit (GPU) socket wins in the Macbook and Macbook Pros for 2012 and with still high hopes for Tegra despite lackluster sequential growth in the second half of 2011.

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However, the company's share of base configured PCs fell to 15 percent from 17 percent over the past 18 months, according to FBR's quarterly CPU/GPU online PC system tracker that surveys 143 online PC systems from the top five PC vendors.

The brokerage also said Nvidia lost some ground to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) in upgradable GPU configurations with 41 percent, down from 45 percent.

In addition, Intel's Sandy Bridge and AMD's Llano are both ramping, potentially affecting discrete GPU attach rates as integrated GPU functionality improves, possibly allowing Intel to address a larger swath of consumer and commercial notebooks with integrated GPUs.

If Intel converts another 10% of the discrete GPU market, Nvidia could get hit by $200 million and $0.12 annually, FBR Capital Markets analyst Craig Berger wrote in a note to clients.

However, the data points from the survey showed that discrete GPU attach rates have remained stable in notebook PCs and have actually increased in desktop PCs over the past 18 months. Stable to rising GPU attach rates are the overall positive here for Nvidia as low-end desktops shrink in volume, as gamer desktops ramp, and as some low-end notebook users cut over to tablets, the analyst said.

Beyond this survey, Berger said Nvidia has new product initiatives that could drive growth in coming years including several new versions of Tegra, the integration of the Icera baseband into Tegra, Windows on ARM processors (Project Denver), and increased functionality of the company's parallel compute (Tesla) product.

Commenting on the shares, the analyst said he generally believes shares are oversold in the $11-$12 range and overbought as they approach $20.

Management's steady execution and future growth initiatives have us considering increasing that range, and shares seem increasingly interesting below $15, said Berger, who has a market perform rating and $20 price target on Nvidia stock.

Shares of Nvidia closed Friday's regular trading session at $14.04 on Nasdaq.