Andrew Luck Tom Brady
Quarterbacks Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots and Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts shake hands after the Patriots 42-20 win during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 16, 2014 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The New England Patriots (2-2) should defeat the Indianapolis Colts (1-3) on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season. It just won’t be as easy as some seem to think it will be.

New England is a 10-point home favorite over Indianapolis, though some sportsbooks have the point spread as high as 10.5 points, according to OddsShark. The Patriots are expected to have no trouble beating the Colts just four days after they blew out the Miami Dolphins 38-7 at Gillette Stadium.

It was a big win for New England, who hadn’t looked like the team that’s dominated the NFL over the last two decades. The Patriots suffered road losses to both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions, playing poorly on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady was getting little help from an unimpressive wide receiving corps and New England’s defense looked a step slow when facing a couple of average offenses.

That changed when New England returned home. The addition of Josh Gordon gave Brady a reliable option outside of Rob Gronkowski, and Sony Michel looked like the stud running back he was in college with 112 yards on the ground. The Patriots also held the Dolphins to 172 yards of offense and 11 first downs.

With Julian Edelman returning from his suspension in Week 5, it only makes sense that the Patriots would roll against the Colts. Indianapolis’ defense has ranked 30th in each of the last two seasons, and Andrew Luck is winless in New England, going 0-3 with losses of 35, 21 and 38 points.

But Indianapolis’ defense hasn’t been bad through the first quarter of the season. It’s actually been pretty good, ranking 10th in opponents’ yards per play.

The Colts have faced quality opponents. They hosted the Cincinnati Bengals, who are eighth in yards per play, as well as the Houston Texans, who are fifth in total offense with Deshaun Watson starting to look like his old self. Indianapolis held Carson Wentz and the defending champion Eagles to 20 points in Philadelphia. While scoring 55 points in two of their first three games, the Redskins never made their way into the end zone when they hosted Indianapolis.

Edelman will be in the lineup for the first time all year, but Gronkowski might be on the sidelines. The tight end suffered an ankle injury Sunday, and Dwayne Allen is preparing to start in his place.

The Patriots averaged 19 points per game before their Week 4 offensive outburst. T.Y. Hilton has been ruled out of the game with multiple injuries. Thursday’s final score could fall well below the over/under of 51 points.

Luck has played fairly well after missing all of last year with a shoulder injury, posting season highs last week with 464 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 108.5 passer rating. He even attempted some deep passes, proving that he’s got plenty of strength in his surgically repaired shoulder.

Indianapolis has found a way to keep all of their games close. Don’t be surprised to see them do the same against the AFC champions.

Prediction: New England over Indianapolis, 26-20