Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on October 7, 2018 in Houston, Texas. Bob Levey/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys (2-3) return home in Week 6 with a difficult opponent standing between themselves and a .500 record. America’s Team is a three-point underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2), though they’ve got a good chance to pull off the upset and improve their standing in the NFC East.

Sunday afternoon’s game won’t be pretty. Points will be at a premium in a contest between two teams that have top defenses but often have trouble scoring. The over/under of 40.5 is the week’s lowest, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark.

Jacksonville’s defense has picked up where it left off in 2017. The Jaguars are second in opponents’ yards per play, and no team is giving up fewer yards per game. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 30 points against Jacksonville in Week 5 largely because Blake Bortles threw four interceptions, and the Jaguars gave up nine points in their only other loss of the season.

Dallas’ defense has been surprisingly good this season. The unit is sixth in opponents’ yards per play and eighth in total defense. Only four teams have given up fewer points. The Cowboys haven’t surrendered more than 24 points in a single game.

Neither the Jaguars nor Cowboys have been consistently impressive on offense, but Dallas has clearly struggled more. Dallas is 24th in yards per play and 28th in total offense, failing to score more than 20 points in all but one game. Jacksonville is 12th in yards per play and ninth in total yards, putting together some strong games in between afternoons in which they had trouble moving the ball.

With a lack of weapons at wide receiver, Dak Prescott has not been put in a position to exceed this season. Things don’t get any easier against the league’s best secondary and the only defense to pick off Patrick Mahomes.

But Dallas doesn’t need Prescott to put up big numbers in order to win. A big day from Ezekiel Elliott and a second straight poor performance from Bortles could be enough to get the job done.

Elliott’s 480 rushing yards give him a comfortable spot atop the NFL leaderboard. Jacksonville is near the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 101.2 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Kareem Hunt and Saquon Barkley combined for 193 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry in Jacksonville’s two road games.

Both of Prescott’s “good” games this season have come at home. He posted a 95.4 passer rating in Week 2 against the New York Giants. Dallas scored a season-high 26 points in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions when the quarterback threw for 255 yards and a 118.6 passer rating. Prescott didn’t throw an interception in either game.

Avoiding turnovers might be all Prescott needs to do in order to outplay Bortles. Jacksonville's quarterback often exceeds the low expectations that are placed upon him, but there’s no denying his struggles on the road. Bortles has thrown four touchdown passes and 11 interceptions in his last five regular-season games away from Jacksonville.

If Bortles couldn’t break the trend in Kansas City against one of the league’s worst defenses, the odds suggest it won’t happen when facing one of the NFL’s best units.

Prediction: Dallas over Jacksonville, 20-16