Final Midterm Election Forecasts Calls For Potential Democratic Sweep

Democrats may have a big election night that reshapes the country's political landscape for the next two years, according to the latest polls and predictions.

The Silver Bulletin website, led by election forecaster Nate Silver, is predicting that Democrats will win the House with a likely gain of 25 seats. The site also gives the party a strong chance to win the Senate.

The site's model, which takes into account polls, historical voting trends, and other data, currently has the Democratic Senate candidate leading by at least three points in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine.

The site's model has Georgia and North Carolina favoring the Democrats by substantial margins. In Kansas, the site gives the Democrat a four-point advantage. The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Kansas was in 1932.

Silver noted that preferences for Democrats on the generic ballot have steadily risen from a 6.5-point lead to a 9-point margin. "This election has felt more like a typical wave, with Democrats' advantage building over the course of the cycle," Silver wrote.

The Cook Political Report also gives Democrats a strong shot at winning the Senate. The organization's final race ratings have all six toss-up races currently held by Republicans. Also, North Carolina is almost considered a sure thing for Democrats, as the site has it rated as a "likely" Democratic pickup.

The site's projections in the House are even more dire for Republicans. Currently, Cook Political Report has Democrats able to secure a majority, even if they were to lose all 18 races currently rated as toss-ups. In other words, the site gives Democrats a realistic shot at winning more than 230 House seats; 218 seats are needed for a majority.

"The question for Tuesday night isn't whether it will be a good night for Democrats (it will be), but whether it will be a historic one," Amy Walter wrote in an analysis on the website.

Finally, Sabato's Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan election forecaster, currently has 239 House seats as at least "lean" Democrat. In the Senate, the website has at least 53 Senate seats as at least "lean," with Democrats possibly flipping seats in Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Maine.

"Donald Trump took command of the Republican Party by, at least in part, repudiating the legacy of the last Republican president, George W. Bush," the site observed. "Yet now on the eve of his second midterm as president, Trump finds himself in Bush's shoes. Trump, like Bush in 2006, is an unpopular president presiding over an unpopular war who is staring down the barrel of losing control of both chambers of Congress just two years after his greatest electoral triumph."