In Early February Army Memo Warned Of 150,000 Possible Coronavirus Deaths

As the coronavirus death toll in the United States surpasses China’s, President Donald Trump and his administration have come under increased criticism over downplaying the pandemic’s danger and hesitating to take action. Now it’s come to light that in February officials in the Army had projected the disease could cause hundreds of thousands of American deaths — raising questions about when the government was aware of the impending crisis.

This week, the Daily Beast viewed an Army briefing memo drafted on Feb. 3 predicting “between 80,000 and 150,000” coronavirus deaths in the United States. At the time, this was filed as a “Black Swan” report, usually a label reserved for extreme, unlikely scenarios. Even still, it prompted Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to order the military to begin “prudent planning” to prepare for a response to the pandemic.

As of Thursday, coronavirus deaths across the country surged towards 5,000. This came with dire new projections that show as many as 240,000 could die during the pandemic. In less than two months, the Army’s worst-case scenario memo appeared to have severely underestimated the potential danger.

Although President Trump is seemingly beginning to acknowledge the seriousness of the pandemic publicly, he repeatedly played down the disease’s danger in February and March. At the time, he repeatedly disputed figures from health experts showing the coronavirus’ ability to spread, including a report from the World Health Organization (WHO) estimating that 3.4% of those infected would die.

While it’s unclear who read the February memo, it was reportedly placed in front of a handful of senior Army officials. The White House and National Security Council did not state whether or not any of their officials had viewed it. Regardless, the memo underscores the fact that officials were aware that the coronavirus had the potential to be very destructive.

Earlier this week, Trump admitted to deliberately playing down the possible threat posed by the coronavirus pandemic. While Trump no doubt hoped to avoid panic and harm to the economy, he has been criticized for wasting time that could have been better spent preparing for an outbreak.

“I knew everything. I knew it could be horrible, I knew it could be maybe good,” Trump said Tuesday as a White House press briefing.