The political landscape took a dramatic shift on June 16, 2015. Businessman Donald Trump — who had previously identified as a Democrat, an Independent and played a prominent role in the Reform Party — announced his bid for the Republican nomination and threw the GOP, Democrats and third-party candidates into a tailspin.

Years later, the White House prospects for both major parties have been a talking point for pundits despite the midterm elections still over 11 months away and while Trump consistently teases that he may run again in 2024.

Who will run in 2024? Which party has the advantage? Will the 2024 election be a repeat of President Joe Biden vs. Trump?

Despite failing to capture the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, Trump remains a frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Since the end of World War II, there has never been a candidate who served as the presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.

The status for both Trump and Biden is very much unclear. Much like in 2016 and 2020, a top storyline will be the age of the candidates. Trump is 75 years old and Biden turned 79 on Saturday with the presidential election still about three years away.

A brief glance at the possible candidacy of Biden, Trump and others seems to yield more questions than answers.

Joe Biden

Incumbents have an advantage in their re-election bids, and in 2020 Biden received 77 million votes, which is more than any presidential candidate in history. His current approval ratings are low but presidents can bounce back fairly quickly after their first year in office. By the time the 2024 campaign rolls around, few voters may put much weight about the events of 2021.

The question for Biden is whether he personally wants to run again at age 82. In his first press conference as president, the press asked him if he would run for reelection, to which Biden responded, "That is my expectation."

In 2020, Biden was able to flip back key swing states that Hillary Clinton failed to win in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden also won traditionally red states Arizona and Georgia. It may be difficult for the Republican nominee to flip more than 36 electoral votes that Biden won in 2020.

Donald Trump

While his base of supporters may remain loyal, Trump could face some backlash from voters who have grown tired of his rhetoric despite his absence from social media. Trump is also facing legal problems and infighting about his presence from within his own party.

However, Trump still has more support than any other Republican candidate and many in his base may be energized by the unfounded theory that there was voter fraud in 2020. Trump is still the face of the Republican party and was able to win 74 million votes in the last presidential election. He also came close to winning Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin -- states that have a combined total of 37 electoral votes.

Kamala Harris

The vice-president's White House hopes likely hinge on whether Biden decides to run again. Should Biden back out, Harris would not face questions about her readiness after four years as vice-president and four years in the Senate.

Harris didn't win a Democratic primary state in 2020 but by 2024 she could be viewed as the clear frontrunner.

Ron DeSantis

Like Harris, DeSantis' possible bid may hinge on the fate of the 2020 party nominee. Should Trump back out, DeSantis might be the Republicans' best option as the governor of Florida, a state with 30 electoral votes.

Also, like Harris, DeSantis may have party support but it's unclear how that would translate with independent and undecided voters.


It's still very early, but possible Republican candidates include Mike Pence, Glenn Youngkin, Chris Sununu, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and Nikki Haley. Possible Democrat candidates include Pete Buttigieg and Stacey Abrams.

Betting Odds

According to betting site OddsChecker, Trump has the best odds of winning the 2024 election at +300, followed by Biden at +500. Harris comes in third at +650. DeSantis is fourth at +800.


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