Flavio Bolsonaro Beat Lula In Brazil’s First Round. The Presidency Will Be Decided Later This Month.

Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a runoff later this month after finishing narrowly ahead of the incumbent in the first round of Brazil's presidential election.

With 99.99% of ballot boxes counted, Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes, or 47.03% of valid ballots, while Lula won 53.9 million votes, or 45.16%, the Superior Electoral Court said early Monday. Neither candidate secured the majority of the votes needed to win outright.

The second round will be held Oct. 25, according to Brazil's official election calendar.

Bolsonaro's performance was stronger than many pre-election surveys had suggested. Polling in the final days of the campaign had generally shown Lula holding a narrow first-round lead, while runoff polling pointed to a much tighter contest.

Speaking after the results were nearly complete, Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia that "Brazil wants change" and declared the result the beginning of the end of the Workers' Party era, according to Reuters.

Lula, meanwhile, told supporters in Sao Paulo that he had expected to win in the first round and said his campaign would effectively restart immediately for the runoff.

The election has been dominated by concerns over household finances, public safety and corruption, with both candidates trying to win over voters frustrated by the cost of living.

Economic conditions are also likely to remain central to the second round. Brazil's Finance Ministry recently cut its forecast for economic growth in 2026 to 2% from 2.3% and lowered its 2027 estimate to 2.3% from 2.5%, citing weaker expectations for services and industry, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Fiscal pressures are another concern. A separate Finance Ministry survey of market economists projected Brazil's gross government debt at 83.2% of GDP in 2026 and 87% in 2027.

Bolsonaro has sought to present himself as the more business-friendly candidate, emphasizing fiscal discipline and a smaller state. Lula has defended his record on employment, income and social programs while announcing measures aimed at easing household debt and living costs.

The race also carries the political legacy of Flavio Bolsonaro's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who narrowly lost to Lula in 2022.

Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced in September 2025 to 27 years and three months in prison after Brazil's Supreme Court convicted him over an attempted coup following his election defeat. He received the longest sentence among eight defendants convicted in the case.

Flavio Bolsonaro has nevertheless kept his father's political movement at the center of his campaign and has drawn support from conservative voters who remain aligned with the former president.

The first-round result also underscored Brazil's political polarization. Bolsonaro told journalists earlier Sunday that he expected to benefit from voters who preferred other candidates but were primarily motivated by opposition to Lula.

The campaign has also been affected by corruption allegations and investigations surrounding the collapse of Banco Master. Authorities have been examining the bank's connections to political figures after its former chief, Daniel Vorcaro, was arrested earlier this year and accused of fraud. He denies wrongdoing.

Bolsonaro has also been investigated for suspected money laundering linked to the broader Banco Master case and has denied wrongdoing.

Brazil's electoral authority said Sunday's voting proceeded smoothly. The Superior Electoral Court's 2026 election rules set Oct. 25 as the date for any presidential runoff, with voting scheduled nationwide from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasilia time.