Israel’s President Says He Has Chosen Eisenkot To Form The Next Government, But That May Not End The Uncertainty

Israeli President Isaac Herzog has requested that Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot form the next government, a move which could end the political deadlock which has prevailed in the country since the legislative elections on October 27.

"President of the State of Israel Isaac Herzog has decided to task the chairman of the Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot, with forming the government ... factions comprising 67 Knesset members recommended to the president of the State of Israel that the chairman of the Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot, be tasked with forming the government. Factions comprising 46 Knesset members recommended Prime Minister and Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu," Herzog's office posted on X on Saturday.

At the elections, Eisenkot's opposition coalition won 48 seats, while current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc secured 53. Netanyahu has held the office longer than any other Israeli politician.

However, with both camps short of the 61 seats necessary for a majority in the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament), the two blocs were faced with either the prospect of building a larger coalition or another election.

The Arab-led parties, which won a total of 19 seats in the vote, became the center of much media and political attention as potential kingmakers.

Both blocs had initially ruled out forming alliances with the Arab-led lists, a pledge which Netanyahu has stuck to. Eisenkot, on the other hand, has not confirmed that he will integrate the Arab parties into a coalition, but has seemed more open to the prospect than Netanyahu since the election.

Eisenkot recently published a list of principles that all potential coalition partners of his would have to agree to in order to join his administration, a move that was interpreted as an invitation to the Arab parties.

For their part, the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am, the two main Arab-led electoral lists, have both recommended to Herzog that Eisenkot become Prime Minister.

Herzog's role as president gives him the authority to choose which Israeli politician gets the first opportunity to form a government in the event of no party securing an outright parliamentary majority at the ballot box. No Israeli political party has ever won a full majority in the nation's history, making big-tent coalitions necessary.

Herzog has invited Eisenkot to a formal swearing-in ceremony at the presidential residence in Jerusalem on Sunday, but Eisenkot's future as prime minister is not guaranteed; he will have a 28-day window in which to form a government, with the possibility of a two-week extension.

Eisenkot's routes to power are numerous, but complex. His least likely path to power is the creation of a large unity government with Netanyahu, an all-but impossibility given that the former IDF Chief of Staff said as recently as Friday that he would form a "national emergency government" whose purpose would be to remove Netanyahu from power as soon as possible.

Eisenkot could either form a majority coalition with support from the Arab or Ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. However, neither possibility seems likely.

Eisenkot's reiteration of the need for all coalition partners to agree to certain positions such as the declarations of Israel as a Jewish state and Hamas as a terrorist organization, as well as universal conscription for all Israeli citizens, will likely be a roadblock for the Arab parties, who have traditionally been hesitant to explicitly designate Israel as Jewish and Hamas as terrorists.

A coalition with the Arab lists would also require none of Eisenkot's electoral partner parties to leave the governing coalition, something which is by no means guaranteed, especially given that one of them - Yisrael Beitenu - has explicitly ruled out the possibility already.

Eisenkot's principles will also be an issue for the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, who support longstanding conscription exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Israel.

A minority government is therefore the most likely possibility, as Eisenkot could govern with his current partners and, in key parliamentary votes, rely on abstentions or supporting votes from members of parliament of the Arab or Haredi parties.

Should he fail, the president can pick another candidate, and should the second fail, the Knesset can nominate a new candidate. If all these attempts fail, another election is called. Until the new government is formed, the incumbent government retains its role as a caretaker administration.