Opposition Leader Machado Has Returned To Venezuela. Her Return Could Destabilize U.S.-Venezuela Relations.

2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate and prominent Venezuelan opposition María Corina Machado confirmed her return to the South American country on Sunday after months in exile.

"I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Saturday. Edmundo González Urrutia, a close political ally of Machado's, corroborated the news.

"Venezuela! I am thrilled to announce to you that our leader, my dear Maria Corina, is on Venezuelan soil. Today is a very important day for Venezuelans. Our sovereign voice returns with her to lead and guide this process! Very soon I will be with you and with her so that our country truly advances toward freedom," González Urrutia, who is a close ally of Machado's, posted.

Her reappearance in the country will likely inconvenience the current Venezuelan leadership, and could undermine improving relations between the administrations of President Donald Trump and current Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez.

Caracas and Washington signed a landmark oil agreement in late August that granted a U.S.-led company, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), 100-year concessions over 17 Venezuelan oilfields in Venezuela which are though to hold approximately 65 billion barrels of crude.

At the time President Donald Trump called the deal "the biggest oil deal in world history." Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves of any country in the world.

Who is Machado?

Machado was nominated to be the Venezuelan opposition's candidate in the 2024 elections against long-serving autocrat and former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. However, she was barred from running.

Instead, González Urrutia was selected as the opposition's candidate and Machado backed him. Following the elections, the government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, but González Urrutia was widely recognized by independent and international observers as the true victor of the vote

Facing governmental harassment following the contested election result, Machado spent over a year in hiding in Venezuela, and left the country in December 2025 to collect the Nobel Prize and has since, until today, remained in exile.

Machado had styled herself as an ally of the U.S., a position which was viewed unfavorably by the Venezuelan government, which had effectively been an adversary of Washington since its election of socialist and anti-U.S. critic Hugo Chávez in 1999.

Tensions persisted between the U.S. and Chávez's successor, Maduro, and reached their apotheosis in January, when U.S. forces abducted Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro and forcibly extradited him to the U.S. to face charges of narcotrafficking and conspiracy to commit torture, amongst other allegations.

Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed the presidency in an interim capacity and has since formed a much closer relationship with Washington than her predecessor, a partnership that was exemplified and solidified by the oil agreement.

Following Maduro's ouster, it was widely anticipated that the Trump administration would support Machado in a bid to assume the Venezuelan leadership and begin a democratic transition in the country.

However, Trump claimed that she lacked the internal support to govern, and Machado revealed she had been excluded from any U.S. transition plans.

Reuters reported three days after the Maduro operation that CIA intelligence assessments shown to the president concluded that the U.S.-backed installation of Machado would be more likely to cause instability in Venezuela than keeping Maduro loyalists in office and maintaining the existing Venezuelan state apparatus.

Machado has, despite symbolically gifting her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump in mid-January, remained sidelined, with a Wall Street Journal report claiming that the U.S. even ordering a jet carrying Machado to return to the U.S. as the opposition figure attempted to return to Venezuela following deadly earthquakes.

In total, Machado has reportedly attempted to return to her home country on seven occasions; her party said that the Venezuelan government prevented her return, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly denied that the U.S. has had anything to do with stopping her from going back.

What now?

At Trump's behest, Rodríguez has previously said that elections would be held in Venezuela as part of a democratic transition, but she has not specified a date for the vote. It also remains unclear whether Machado would be eligible to run for office if such an election took place.

Machado's position on the historic U.S.-Venezuela oil deal also remains somewhat unclear. She has previously said that, while "of course the United States is the principal partner Venezuela needs to fully develop its strategic potential," many Venezuelans felt "sadness, anger and unease" at being excluded from the decision-making process.

She also asserted that the oil itself, which she called "the wealth of our subsoil," did "not belong to an illegitimate regime – it belongs to the Venezuelan people."

Responding to the news of Machado's appearance in Venezuela, Trump seemed cautiously positive, claiming that he didn't "know anything about it" but thought that "she is a very nice woman."

"She gave me her Nobel Prize, so how can I say anything else? And I hope she is safe," the president continued.

Catherine Ellis, a freelance journalist who specializes in Venezuela coverage, spoke to International Business Times about the implications of Machado's return.

"While many Venezuelans are shocked and thrilled by Machado's arrival, the government will inevitably see it as a problem. Machado has huge support among the electorate and, while recent opposition protests have been modest in number, her return could mobilise large crowds in a highly visible show to the world, especially the US, that she is the person they feel represents them," the journalist said.

"Her return also presents a major challenge for the US, which has been divided over whether she should return. Machado's arrival brings considerable uncertainty ... this has implications for investor confidence, particularly in the oil and energy sectors, as businesses look for opportunities in Venezuela amid improving US-Venezuela relations."

"However, Machado's supporters may welcome her return as a sign that the country is moving closer to democracy, which they believe would ultimately benefit businesses and investors," Ellis concluded.