Russia Holds First Post-War Parliamentary Elections. Western Intelligence Fears Putin Will Escalate Ukraine Conflict Post-Vote.

Polls for elections to the 450 seats of the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's Federal Assembly, opened on Friday and will close on Sunday.

United Russia (UR), the current pro-Putin ruling party, won 324 seats at the last election in 2021 and is widely anticipated to win this current election as well. UR's main opponents will be the Communist Party, which won 57 seats at the last election, and the Liberal Democratic Party, which won 22 seats in 2021.

Both the left-wing communist party and the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party support the Russian invasion.

The only officially registered Russian political party which opposes the war is Yabloko, a socially liberal and progressive outfit which won over 750,000 votes in the 2021 elections. It was barred from standing in these elections by Russia's highest court after being accused by the nationalist Rodina party of receiving illegal funding from abroad and copyright infringement.

Despite the ban on Yabloko, analysts say that the Kremlin will nevertheless use the results as a barometer to gauge public support for its war against Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the Kremlin dubs the "Special Military Operation" began in February 2022 and, as of this summer, has cost Russia as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths and 1.4 million total casualties, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"The Kremlin will use it [the election] to claim that most Russians back the president and the war", wrote the BBC's Moscow Correspondent Steve Rosenberg.

"Your choice and your will will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers, that we are a united people bound together by shared values, historical memory, and love for our homeland, and that no one will succeed in dividing or intimidating us", Putin told Russians in a televised address on Wednesday.

Europe prepares for escalation

Ukraine and its NATO allies are preparing for the possibility that Putin will escalate the Russian ground campaign against Ukraine and increase hybrid attacks on Ukraine's European allies after the elections take place.

One Western intelligence source told The Telegraph that Russian forces may be preparing a massive "stealth mobilization" of thousands of new Russian conscripts.

Zelensky also predicted in August that the Russians would mobilize up to 300,000 additional troops to send to the frontlines in Ukraine after the elections.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk cautioned on Thursday that Russian attacks could hit targets outside of Ukraine's borders too.

"There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage. And the official [Russian] narrative will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response", the Polish leader said.

French President Emmanuel Macron also announced on Friday that he would implement defensive measures to shield French infrastructure from Russian hybrid attacks, which have, according to the French premier, been on the rise.

Russia has been accused by NATO countries of planning to disable underwater cables in the Arctic and conducting a drone attack at Germany's Leipzig airport. Russia denies responsibility for the Leipzig attack, instead accusing the German government of planting evidence.

During his visit to Moscow in August, CIA director John Ratcliffe reportedly warned his Russian counterparts not to attack the U.S.'s NATO allies.

While speaking at a meeting of the Russian Military-Industrial Commission on Friday, Putin dismissed the notion that Russia sought to aggravate tensions with Europe.

"I want to state once again: Russia has no aggressive intentions toward Europe or European countries. There are simply no grounds for this whatsoever. We are ready for cooperation and for restoring relations with our European neighbors", the Russian President said.