The Trump Administration Is Intensifying Threats Of Regime Change In Cuba Before The Midterms

Both President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that a U.S. military operation against Cuba, a longstanding ideological adversary of the U.S., could be imminent.

"We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran, we'll do a little stopover. Actually what we're going to do with Cuba is we're going to come back from Iran, those beautiful ships will pass Cuba, we'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast, they'll raise up their hands, and then we're going to send Marco Rubio in to finish off the job," President Trump told supporters during a midterm rally for Republican candidates in South Florida on Friday.

Rubio, who is himself of Cuban descent and has been known for advocating for hawkish policies towards Cuba's communist government, also weighed in on Friday.

"To those who seek to create positive change in Cuba - now is the time. The disappointment of failed promises, corruption, and the privileged lives of only a few; seize this opportunity to create the change you desire through a discrete partnership with the CIA," the U.S.'s highest-ranking diplomat wrote on X.

The CIA reposted Rubio's message in Spanish and published a guide explaining to Cubans how to best get in touch with the intelligence agency.

The Cuban leadership was defiant in its response towards these threats by Washington.

"The U.S. government makes it clear that it does not renounce its ambitions of domination over Cuba. It is good to remember that we Cubans achieved our true independence since January 1, 1959, and we are determined to defend it," Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel retorted on Friday.

Cuba's pre-revolutionary dictator Fulgencio Batista fled Cuba on January 1, 1959 in the face of the advancing rebel forces of Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro. The date is therefore seen as the day the Cuban Revolution triumphed.

Tensions between Washington and Havana have been high for most of the post-revolutionary period, as the former has maintained a comprehensive economic sanctions regime on the latter for over six decades.

However, bilateral relations have deteriorated dramatically since Trump's re-election to office, as the Trump administration has maintained a near-total oil blockade of the island since the beginning of the year, when U.S. military forces forcibly extradited Venezuelan President and staunch Cuban ally Nicolás Maduro to the U.S.

Caracas, which was once Cuba's principal oil supplier, has now largely stopped sending oil shipments to Havana.

The energy blockade, as well as a ratcheting up of U.S. sanctions on key sectors of the Cuban economy, including financial services, defense, mining and the private sector, have plunged Cuba into an economic and humanitarian crisis, causing several nationwide power outages and high strain on key services like transport and healthcare.

Key Trump administration officials have also, throughout 2026, repeatedly threatened the Cuban political leadership with regime change, with Trump even predicting in March that he would "have the honor of taking Cuba," claiming that he could "do anything I want with it."

Trump's reiteration of this message in South Florida, a region with a large Cuban-American community descended from Cuban exiles who fled the island due to political repression or the seizing of economic assets by the Caribbean nation's ruling communist party, could be a political tactic designed to shore up support in the conservative-leaning state before the midterms on November 3.

Polls show that the Democrats are likely to flip the House and that their chances of winning the Senate are also increasing substantially.