Stimulus Checks
Paying $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen would cost roughly $1.23 trillion, based on U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. AFP

President Donald Trump promised a $5,000 payment to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November, putting a potential $1.2 trillion cash payout at the center of his party's midterm pitch.

"If the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000," Trump told the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday. He described the payment as a "Trump dividend" and said recipients would have to spend the money in the United States, but he did not lay out a detailed funding mechanism or explain how such a restriction would work.

The cost of such a payout would be substantial, with the U.S. Census Bureau estimating that there were 245.3 million U.S. citizens age 18 and older in 2024. At $5,000 each, the total would come to about $1.23 trillion.

Read more

That is equivalent to roughly one-sixth of projected federal spending for the current fiscal year. The Congressional Budget Office projected in February that federal outlays would reach about $7.4 trillion in fiscal 2026. CBO's latest estimate put this year's federal deficit at about $2.1 trillion

Vice President JD Vance indicated Thursday that the final proposal could be narrower than Trump's pledge and that wealthier Americans might not receive the payment, according to The Associated Press. Vance also pointed to tariff revenue as a possible way to finance the checks.

Current tariff revenue, however, would cover only a fraction of the estimated cost. The CBO said in August that projected net customs revenue for fiscal 2026 had fallen sharply after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the administration replaced them with duties imposed under other authorities.

The agency estimated that net customs revenue would be about $250 billion lower this fiscal year than it had projected in February. Even before that downward revision, CBO's February forecast put customs duties at $418 billion for fiscal 2026, well short of the amount needed to fund Trump's proposed payments.

Tariffs are collected by the U.S. government from companies importing goods into the country, and research has found that much of their economic cost ultimately remains in the United States. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis found that nearly 90% of the economic burden of tariffs imposed in 2025 fell on U.S. firms and consumers rather than foreign exporters.

Federal Reserve researchers have also found evidence that those duties have worked their way into retail prices. A Federal Reserve Board study found that tariff-related price pressure built gradually during 2025, with particularly large increases for goods imported from China.

Trump has floated several other proposals to return government savings or tariff revenue directly to Americans. In February 2025, he backed the idea of a $5,000 "DOGE dividend" tied to savings generated by the Department of Government Efficiency, which envisioned returning a portion of those savings to taxpaying households. The payments were never issued.

He later floated tariff-funded rebates of up to $2,000. Those checks also did not materialize, with some congressional Republicans arguing that additional tariff revenue should instead be used to reduce federal borrowing.

Trump tied the proposed payments to Republicans retaining control of Congress in the Nov. 3 elections. Republicans currently control both the House and Senate, and Trump urged voters at the Dallas convention to "pretend that I'm on the ballot."

The payments would require congressional approval before they could be distributed. Trump did not provide details Wednesday on how the proposal would move through Congress, when the checks would be issued or whether additional eligibility restrictions would apply.