Ukrainian Strikes Keep Disrupting Russian Refineries. Moscow’s Oil Refining Capacity is Reportedly Down 30%.

A renewed wave of Ukrainian drone strikes has cut Russia's oil refining capacity by about 30% since late October, two industry sources told Reuters. The disruptions are squeezing Moscow's ability to supply fuel at home while it ships diesel abroad under an agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The attacks disrupted operations at nine of Russia's 35 major refineries in the past week. Among the facilities hit was the Kirishi refinery, Russia's second-largest. Leningrad region Gov. Alexander Drozdenko said an overnight drone strike set the plant on fire Monday and killed one woman.

The plants affected since late October can process a combined 300,000 metric tons of crude a day, equivalent to roughly 2.2 million barrels, at their rated capacity. Russia's total primary refining capacity is about 930,000 metric tons a day. The affected facilities include refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region.

The industry sources put the possible drop in actual crude processing at up to 200,000 metric tons a day. Russian refineries were processing about 700,000 metric tons, or 5 million barrels, of crude a day at the end of October. At the upper end of the estimate, daily processing would fall to about 500,000 metric tons, roughly 29% below that late-October level.

Reuters reported Monday that shortages had returned to at least six Russian regions. In northwestern Karelia, regional authorities announced purchase limits at Rosneft stations along highways.

Motorists could buy up to 30 liters of gasoline or 50 liters of diesel, and sales into portable containers were suspended. Rosneft stations in Ulan-Ude, in eastern Siberia, imposed the same limits, regional officials said.

Russia faced a similar squeeze over the summer, when an earlier round of Ukrainian refinery strikes coincided with peak seasonal fuel demand. The government reinstated restrictions on gasoline exports and added limits on diesel shipments in July.

The latest shortages come after Moscow partially lifted its diesel export ban and Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel as part of the October agreement. Trump announced the deal on October 9 as part of an effort to bring down fuel prices before the U.S. midterm elections.

He said Russia would immediately make 300,000 metric tons of diesel available to the United States and world markets, with another 500,000 metric tons to follow in November. Writing Tuesday in the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the agreement was already bringing down prices.

U.S. diesel futures had fallen about 11% since the announcement. At U.S. filling stations, however, diesel prices reached a record high last week as Americans voted. Lavrov also accused Ukraine of ignoring Trump's calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities. Ukraine intensified its refinery attacks after the pause in strikes on energy infrastructure that Trump announced in late October failed to take hold.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that Kyiv was targeting Russia's refining industry in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants, electricity networks, heating systems and water supplies.

He said Moscow had "refused the de-escalation steps that our partners talked about." Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is prepared to halt its strikes if Russia stops attacking Ukrainian energy facilities.

The attacks on Ukraine's grid continued Tuesday as representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the United States met in Abu Dhabi for their first three-way talks since February. Ukraine's grid operator said Russian strikes hit energy infrastructure in eight regions overnight and into the morning, leaving homes without power in six.