The message on the wall is clear: Let Mubarak go and he may go sooner than later. It may be too early but inevitable to visualize a future scenario in Egypt.
Here are some trends one can visualize in Egypt, sans Mubarak:
* Washington may facilitate Mubarak's exit, though reluctantly, the way it eased out its close ally Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines in February 1986. Its rhetoric that democratic elections be held and the winner be the next leader may fall on deaf ears and tens of thousands on the streets of Cairo have vouched for his exit first.
* Former IAEA chief and Nobel Peace prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei will emerge as the unifying force to pacify the violent protesters since the military said it would resist from killing its own citizens. In this scenario, many world leaders may back El Baradei and he has openly declared his willingness to lead the transition if people want him to do so. The Obama administration, realizing that people are already rallying behind El Baradei and not any other traditional opposition group like the Muslim Brotherhood, would eventually endorse his candidature.
* Reports say that the opposition including the Muslim Brotherhood and four other opposition groups have given mandate to El Baradei to negotiate an interim national salvation government though El Baradei himself described them just a part of the Egyptian government as the Marxist Party or any Liberal party. Given the need for unity, El Baradei may relent and allow the Muslim Brotherhood and others to join the new transitional government.
* El Baradei, who was known for his opposition to the unilateral US invasion of Iraq in 2003, may not adhere to the foreign policy emulated by his predecessor. Currently, Egypt is a known ally of Washington and paved the way for a major shift in policy of the Arab nations since President Anwar Sadat's days 31 years ago. A break from this policy means Israel will face increasing isolation in the region and the Palestinian cause may gain strength.
* The US aid worth $1.3 billion last year may be stopped this year and the military equipment worth hundreds of millions of dollars in the pipeline would stop since the new Egyptian government will invariably deviate from the present foreign policy. The role of military generals in an event of aid cut would pose problems for El Baradei, unless he gives them room in the new government. Washington may eventually face a hostile regime in Cairo and a situation similar to the one it had faced in the Philippines after Marcos, when the Acquino government persuaded the US to withdraw its military bases in the Subic Bay, may occur.