AI Is Starting to Take a Toll on Jobs. Goldman Sachs Finds Entry-Level Workers Are Most Exposed.

Artificial intelligence is beginning to leave a measurable mark on labor markets across the world's largest developed economies, but the pressure is far from evenly distributed among different industries.

New research from Goldman Sachs found that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have generally experienced weaker growth in job openings since the second half of 2022.

The effects are particularly noticeable in the United States, Germany and Australia, and offer some of the clearest evidence yet that the rapid adoption of generative AI is beginning to reshape hiring.

The findings do not point to a broad AI-driven collapse in employment. Instead, Goldman found that the impact remains concentrated in specific industries and among certain workers, with people trying to enter the labor market facing significantly greater pressure.

Information and communication services, one of the sectors considered most exposed to AI, have experienced slowing employment growth across nearly every major developed economy since 2022. Outside the United States, however, employment in the sector remains near or above its longer-term trend.

The picture becomes more striking when Goldman examines individual industries where AI tools can already perform or automate substantial portions of existing jobs. Employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising has fallen sharply below historical trends across developed economies, according to the research.

Call centers show some of the largest gaps. Employment in the industry is now 39% below trend in the United States, 33% below trend in Canada and 27% below trend in Germany. Goldman said those figures suggest that AI-related employment pressure is already becoming visible in industries where technology capable of automating existing work is readily available.

The pressure is particularly significant for entry-level workers. Goldman examined employment growth across more than 800 occupations and found that AI-related headwinds were strongest among workers at the beginning of their careers. Occupations considered at high risk of displacement from AI also experienced an additional negative effect, although it was smaller.

Across the overall labor market, the effect remains modest. Goldman calculated that a 10% increase in occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point reduction in annual headcount growth in the United States, Canada and France.

For entry-level workers, however, the drag was considerably larger. The effect exceeded 0.6 percentage point in Australia and 0.2 percentage point in the United States, according to Goldman. That distinction could become increasingly important as companies determine whether AI should supplement junior employees or eliminate some of the tasks traditionally assigned to workers starting their careers.

Goldman's findings arrive as AI adoption continues to accelerate. The bank combined data from 11 surveys measuring AI use across countries and estimated adoption rates of approximately 15% to 20% across major developed economies.

France, the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom were among the leaders in AI adoption. Italy, Japan and New Zealand were closer to the lower end of the developed-market rankings. Major emerging economies were slightly behind, with estimated adoption rates generally ranging from 10% to 15%.