KEY POINTS

  • The RSI, an indicator that signals when an asset is overbought or oversold, recently reached a level that indicated the start of a bull run in previous Bitcoin halvings
  • Other analysts are predicting further upside as data from options market reveal interest at 12,000, 13,000, and $16,000
  • The Stock-to-Flow model predicts a bull run towards $100,000 by mid-2021

As Bitcoin continued to stay close to $12,000, Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator and analyst PlanB, declared the start of the bull market for the benchmark cryptocurrency.

Pointing to Bitcoin’s current relative strength index (RSI) of 64, Bitcoin is on the cusp of another bull run. Typically used to indicate whether prices are in overbought or oversold levels, the RSI of 64 is just below the overbought level of 70 and in the previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, it was when RSI hit 64 that a rapid bull run followed.

At the time of this writing, RSI just went back to 60 and Bitcoin is traversing the $11,900 level after a wild shakeout Tuesday that saw the cryptocurrency fall from $12,378 to $11,825.

To verify PlanB’s chart, one has to check the logarithmic price of Bitcoin and the monthly RSI, which is posted by another Twitter user.

A further upside in the price is echoed by other analysts, like options trader William Purdy, who advised investors to look at options market data to estimate the future price of Bitcoin. "12,000, $13,000, $14,100 and $16,000 are the spots with the greatest open interest," he said while noting that these are the levels to watch as support and resistance in the future.

Most notably, PlanB’s own Stock-to-Flow model predicts a massive bull run onward to $55,000 and $100,000 by mid-2021. The analyst’s ceiling price due to the third halving is $288,000. While very popular, the Stock-to-Flow has its share of critics, with many pointing out its ambitious estimates. PlanB’s followers counter-argued that just as no one predicted Bitcoin would reach $10,000 when it was still at $1,000 and $20,000 the first time it reached $10,000, the same thing could happen in the future.

Other analyses are more conservative, albeit still pitting it at higher than current levels. Bloomberg, for example, is predicting a revisit to $20,000 by the end of 2020. "Something has to go wrong for Bitcoin to not appreciate in value," the publication noted in its June 2020 crypto report.

Bitcoin is the best known virtual currency, but it may face a real problem next week
Bitcoin is the best known virtual currency, but it may face a real problem next week AFP / INA FASSBENDER
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