CDC Director Warns Second Wave Of COVID-19 Could Hit US Next Year

The United States should brace itself as COVID-19 might become seasonal. CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said that Americans should assume COVID-19 would be similar to other respiratory viruses and that there may be a seasonality to it.

Likely But Not Guaranteed

In an interview with George Stephanopoulos, the host of ‘Good Morning America,’ Dr. Redfield said a resurgence of COVID-19 in the U.S. is “possible,” but it is not guaranteed. The CDC director said that he is not certain about such resurgence happening until he sees it happen. “But it is critical that we plan that this virus is likely to follow a seasonality pattern similar to flu, and we’re going to have another battle with it up-front and aggressively next winter,” said Dr. Redfield.

Dr. Redfield also said that CDC is working very hard to supplement a strategy that will ensure public health. He also said that when the U.S. enters the next season, “…we’ll be able to stay in high containment mode while we complement that with some continued mitigation strategies.”

Social Distancing Measures

The CDC is looking at the viability of reopening the country during the fall season, a time when improved social distancing measures would already have been in place. President Trump has been on the phone with many of the country’s governors, trying to convince them why the country should be “reopened” by the first of May.

A study published in the journal Science by Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health researchers noted that “prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022.” According to the study, which was published on Tuesday, this may be the ideal thing to do in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine.

A COVID-19 Recurrence

Researchers used computer models in analyzing how long COVID-19 infections could persist in case it becomes seasonal. Based on the hypothesis that it could become seasonal, they concluded that a COVID-19 recurrence could overwhelm hospitals if social distancing measures are not kept in place. “Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 [the scientific name for the coronavirus] epidemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place between 25% and 75% of that time,” the Harvard researchers wrote.

Four Coronaviruses Are Seasonal

In another study conducted by the University of Michigan School of Public Health, researchers found that four of the seven coronaviruses that can infect humans are seasonal. According to the study, such infections occur during the winter season. It is, however, not clear whether SARS-CoV-2 will also follow the same pattern.

According to Dr. Arnold Monto, although seasonal coronaviruses occurring in Michigan have links to SARS-CoV-2, it is not known whether the new coronavirus will also behave like seasonal coronaviruses. Dr. Monto is a Thomas Francis collegiate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. “Only time will tell if SARS-CoV-2 will become a continuing presence in the respiratory infection landscape, continue with limited circulation as with MERS, or, like SARS, disappear from humans altogether,” said Dr. Monto.