How The Oddsmakers See Key Senate Races; Arizona, Colorado Favored To Flip

While much of the focus is on Donald Trump and Joe Biden a month away from the 2020 presidential election, there are several Senate races that could potentially flip the balance of power in favor of the Democrats.

Republicans control the Senate with 53 seats, but the latest betting odds suggest that number could be much smaller on Nov. 4. The odds of Republicans having fewer than 50 Senate seats after the election is 10/11 at Ladbrokes, a British sportsbook. Republicans have 13/8 odds to have more than 50 Senate seats.

A $100 bet on 10/11 odds has a possible profit of $90.11. Betting on the Republicans to have more than 50 seats at 13/8 odds would result in a $163 profit if the party keeps control.

Which states could be responsible for the Democrats gaining more seats? Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine all have Republican incumbents who are betting underdogs in their respective races.

Arizona Sen. Martha McSally has 7/2 odds to lose her seat to Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. Kelly is a 1/6 favorite to defeat McSally, who was appointed to John McCain’s seat in late 2018. Kelly is such a big favorite that a bettor would have to risk $600 in order to make a $100 profit on a victory for the Democrat.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis has 13/8 odds to keep his seat in a race against Democrat Cal Cunningham. Tillis narrowly won the election in 2014, defeating Democrat Kay Hagan with 49.0% of the votes. Cunningham is a 4/9 favorite.

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is a 4/1 underdog against Democrat John Hickenlooper, who has 1/7 odds. Two years after Garnder was elected, Trump lost Colorado by five points. The latest FiveThirtyEight poll has Hickenlooper beating Gardner by seven points.

The race is almost dead even in Iowa, where Republican Sen. Joni Erst has even odds to keep her seat. Democrat Theresa Greenfield is a slight favorite with 8/11 odds. Trump won Iowa by nearly 10 points in the 2016 election.

A pair of Democrat incumbents are looking to hold off Republicans. Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (9/2) is considered likely to lose his seat to Republican Tommy Tuberville (1/8). Tuberville spent a decade as Auburn University’s head football coach. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (1/3) is favored to beat Republican John James (9/4).

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham (4/11) is favored over Democrat Jaime Harrison (2/1). A Quinnipiac University poll shows the candidates tied with 48% of the vote each.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell (1/8) is a heavy betting favorite to defeat Amy McGrath (9/2) in Kentucky.